ASX 200, Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels in Focus

I’ve admittedly sounded like a broken record this past week, repeatedly calling for a top on the ASX 200 — only to watch it climb higher. The only saving grace has been my caution: I’ve consistently noted that a break below key support levels would be needed to confirm a pullback.

Now, once again, I’m leaning into a bearish short-term bias — but with updated resistance levels and price structure to guide the setup.

View related analysis:

ASX 200 (Australian 200 Index): Monthly, Daily Charts

The ASX 200’s 3.4% month-over-month gain in April understates the index’s actual strength — it surged an impressive 13.6% from its April low to high. A large bullish hammer candle formed by month-end, suggesting buyers remain firmly in control. While this points to the potential for further upside, I remain cautious about how sustainable this level of bullish momentum is. A short-term pullback or two appears increasingly likely, even if the broader uptrend remains intact.

A hanging man candle formed on Thursday, signalling near-term exhaustion. It carries extra weight in my view, given that it formed beneath the January low and the 8200 handle. A bearish divergence has also emerged on the RSI (2), and with the 200-day SMA sitting at 8201, a notable cluster of resistance levels hovers nearby for bears to consider fading into.

Dow Jones (DJI Futures) Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Market Outlook

Of the three major Wall Street indices, the ASX 200 tends to share the strongest positive correlation with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI futures). That makes current Dow price action particularly relevant for Australian traders.

At present, the Dow Jones rally appears to be stalling at critical resistance levels — specifically near the March low, the March 31 swing low, and a longer-term descending trendline. This confluence of resistance suggests a potential exhaustion point for bullish momentum.

Adding weight to the bearish case:

The Dow Jones has printed eight consecutive bullish daily candles, a streak not seen since May 2024
The Daily RSI (2) reached overbought territory on Tuesday, flagging stretched short-term conditions

Given these technical signals, a pullback on the Dow Jones appears increasingly likely. Such a move could serve as a bearish catalyst for the ASX 200, further reinforcing the case for a short-term retracement across both indices.

Economic Events in Focus (AEST / GMT+10)

09:30 - Japanese Unemployment, jobs/applications rate
09:50 – Japanese foreigner bond and stock purchases, BOJ monetary base
11:30 – Australian producer prices q/q, retail sales q/q
19:00 – EU core CPI
22:30 – US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment
00:00 – US core durables

ASX 200 (Australian 200 Index) at a Glance

The ASX 200 cash index rose for a sixth consecutive day (its best streak since September)
6 ASX sectors advanced, led by telecoms and consumer staples, 5 ASX sectors declined, led by energy and info tech
The ASX 200 also on track for its third consecutive week high (its best streak in three months)
ASX 200 futures (SPI 200) were -32 lower overnight (-0.39%) to suggest a gap lower at today’s open for the ASX cash index

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.