Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of December High

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

AUD/USD appears to be pulling back ahead of the December high (0.6515) as it struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Pulls Back Ahead of December High

AUD/USD falls from a fresh yearly high (0.6450) even as Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds steady at 2.4% in March, and the V-shape recovery in the exchange rate may start to unravel should it fail to defend the rebound from the weekly low (0.6356).

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Nevertheless, signs of persistent price growth keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe is the Board’s highest priority,’ and AUD/USD may continue to trade to fresh yearly highs as the central bank seems to be in no rush to unwind its restrictive policy.

With that said, AUD/USD may stage further attempts to test the December high (0.6515) should it defend the advance from the weekly low (0.6356), but the threat of a US-China trade war may undermine the V-shape recovery in the exchange rate as it clouds the outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

• AUD/USD is little changed from the start of the week as it falls from a fresh yearly high (0.6450), and failure to defend the rebound from the weekly low (0.6356) may push the exchange rate back towards 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
• A break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6140 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region brings the 0.5990 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6020 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar, but AUD/USD stage further attempts to test the December high (0.6515) should it defend the advance from the weekly low (0.6356).
• Need a break/close above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) region to open up 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around the November high (0.6688).

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--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong