British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Bulls Retest Major Resistance

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• British Pound defends 2025 uptrend- rallies back into pivotal resistance at the 2024 highs
• GBP/USD risk for price inflection / breakout in the days ahead- UK inflation, retail sales on tap
• Resistance 1.3414, 1.3500/15(key), 1.3671- Support 1.3270, 1.3127 (key), 1.2860

Sterling is trading back into pivotal resistance this week with GBP/USD poised for a potential breakout in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last British Pound Weekly Forecast we noted that the GBP/USD breakout had, “responded to initial resistance here- risk for near-term price inflection. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach / close above 1.3515 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.”

Sterling plunged more than nearly 2.3% off the highs with price rebounding off the medina-line last week. The move keeps the focus on a breakout of this five-week range below resistance with momentum testing a potential breach into overbought territory- looking for a breakout of this range in the days ahead.

Resistance remains unchanged with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.3414 and is backed by a major confluence just higher at 1.3500/14- a region defined by the 2019 high and the 2009 swing low. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next leg of the advance. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 2022 high-week close (HWC) at 1.3671 and the 61.8% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.4000.

Look for initial weekly support at the 2025 HWC near 1.3270 with key near-term support unchanged at the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3127. A break / close below the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / suggest a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support rests with the 52-week moving average near 1.2860 and the 2024 yearly open / February 2019 low at 1.2731/73.

Bottom line: Sterling is trading just below resistance at the yearly highs for a fifth-consecutive week. Looking for a reaction off this mark for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.3270 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3514 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the yearly uptrend.  

Keep in mind we get the release of UK inflation data (CPI) tomorrow with UK retail sales on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance here. I’ll publish an updated British Pound Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• Gold (XAU/USD)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
• Crude Oil (WTI)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex