CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Jumps with Trump Tariffs to Hit in April

Article By: ,  Strategist
February 26, 2025 9:20 PM

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD

USD/CAD jumps to a fresh weekly high (1.4366) as US President Donald Trump states that the tariffs for Canada will go into effect on April 2, and the exchange rate may appreciate over the remainder of the month as it carves a series of higher highs and lows.

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Jumps with Trump Tariffs to Hit in April

Keep in mind, USD/CAD broke out of the range bound price action from last week following the failed attempts to test the monthly low (1.4151), and the ongoing change in US trade policy may continue to produce headwinds for the Canadian Dollar as the Bank of Canada (BoC) acknowledges that ‘a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.’

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

In response, the BoC may pause its rate-cutting cycle as the ‘Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians,’ but the threat of a trade war may push Governor Tiff Macklem and Co. to further ease monetary policy in 2025 as ‘the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested.’

With that said, the looming US tariffs may keep USD/CAD afloat as it fuels speculation for lower interest rates in Canada, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the coming days should it snap the recent series of higher highs and lows.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CAD Price on TradingView

  • USD/CAD stages a four-day rally following the failed attempt to test the monthly low (1.4151), with a break/close above the 1.4470 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.4510 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the 1.4600 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 1.4660 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar.
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.4790 (50% Fibonacci extension), but lack of momentum to hold above the 1.4210 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.4270 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push USD/CAD back towards the monthly low (1.4151).
  • A break/close below 1.4110 (50% Fibonacci extension) opens up the 1.3940 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.4000 (62.8% Fibonacci extension) region, which incorporates the December low (1.3991), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

GBP/USD Climbs to Fresh Monthly High to Approach Channel Resistance

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Continues to Coil Within January Range

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Falls from Channel Resistance

USD/JPY Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Above Oversold Zone

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025