Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Vulnerable to Fresh Yearly Lows

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD

USD/CAD is little changed from the start of the week as it snaps the recent series of lower highs and lows, but the exchange rate may fall to fresh yearly lows should it fail to defend the rebound from the weekly low (1.3770).

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Vulnerable to Fresh Yearly Lows

Keep in mind, USD/CAD cracked the November low (1.3821) during the previous month on the back of US Dollar weakness, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the October low (1.3473) as it appears to be searching for support.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

As a result, a further decline in USD/CAD may push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward oversold territory, but the oscillator may show the bearish momentum abating should it continue to hold above 30.

With that said, USD/CAD may attempt to retrace the selloff from April should it defend the advance from the weekly low (1.3770), but the weakness in the exchange rate may persist as the 50-Day SMA (1.4173) establishes a negative slope.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CAD Price on TradingView

USD/CAD is little changed from the start of the week as it bounces back from a fresh yearly low (1.3770), but another failed attempt to close above 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension) may push the exchange rate toward the 1.3700 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 1.3710 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region.
Next area of interest comes in around 1.3630 (38.2% Fibonacci extension), with a break/close below 1.3520 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) opening up the October low (1.3473).
At the same time, a close above 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension) may push USD/CAD back toward the 1.3940 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.4000 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone with the next area of interest coming in around 1.4110 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Additional Market Outlooks

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (APR 2025)

USD/JPY Defends Rebound from Monthly Low Ahead of BoJ Rate Decision

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD on Cusp of Testing 2024 High

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Weekly Low Ahead of Euro Area GDP Report

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.