CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Holds 1.1500, is a Turn Near?

Article By: ,  Sr. Strategist
Monday 5:14 PM

Euro, EUR/USD Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD bulls made a push last week but fell five pips short of re-testing the 1.1500 psychological level.
  • That price remains a big point for the pair as it was tested in April before a 400+ pip reversal appeared.
  • I look into EUR/USD in-depth in each weekly webinar, and you’re welcome to attend the next. Click here to register.

It’s been a surprisingly strong year for EUR/USD as the pair came into 2025 with many forecasting another parity test. In Q4 of 2024 the Euro had dropped like a rock against the U.S. Dollar, setting a fresh two-year-low before finally finding some support around the 1.0200 handle in January.

The change wasn’t fast, as there was continued grind into the February open, but it was that first trading day of February when matters began to shift to a ‘less bearish’ backdrop as a higher-low held above the 1.0200 Fibonacci level, and bulls started to hit back with repeated tests of the 1.0500 handle.

March is when matters began to shift more visibly as a hard sell-off in the USD on the back of recession fears helped to drive a massive move in EUR/USD that could even be considered as historic in scope. That drive continued through the first few weeks of April, even if the reasons in the backdrop began to shift with President Trump taking a softer stance with tariffs.

It was Easter Monday when EUR/USD finally re-tested the 1.1500 handle. That was the first test there since February of 2022, when that price set as a lower-high before sellers took over – and eventually drove below the parity level later that year. When it was re-tested in April, bulls couldn’t get very far above and then a pullback started to show until the 1.1100 level provided a bit of support, leading into a bounce.

The 1.1500 level was almost back in-play last week around the ECB rate decision. The bank sounded less-dovish than expected, and EUR/USD vaulted towards the big figure before bulls suddenly stalled five pips below the level. That remains resistance as we move deeper into June trade.

 

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Grinding Higher

 

Since the 1.1100 test about a month ago, EUR/USD bears haven’t been able to show much for progress, and this goes along with a generally weaker USD that has continued to fall since the resistance test at 102.00 in DXY.

What could make the pair more attractive on the short side is comparison to other majors:  While EUR/USD is holding at a lower-high, GBP/USD set a fresh three-year-high last week, and USD/CAD a fresh 2025 low last Thursday. On a relative basis, there could be attraction on the short-side of the Euro for those that are looking for a bounce in the U.S. Dollar. But that’s the big question at this point, and this puts attention to this week’s CPI report out of the United States.

From the weekly chart of DXY, there could be a case for a USD bounce scenario, as so far the Dollar has held a higher-low at a key Fibonacci level of 98.98. That coincides more with the lower-high in EUR/USD than the fresh highs in GBP/USD or the fresh lows in USD/CAD.

I think there will be a strong USD/JPY component in the mix for the US Dollar, as well, although that pair has shown a tendency to brew traps on either side of the market; and collectively that can make reversal strategies in EUR/USD as one of the more attractive ways of approaching bullish USD setups.

 

U.S. Dollar Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Shorter-Term

 

At this point the daily would continue to show a bullish lean as we have a higher short-term high last week along with a series of higher-lows. So far this week, it’s the 1.1400 level that’s been in as support, so there’s not yet a backdrop for a turn via price action.

This then sets up for a couple of different scenarios: The first would be a test and failure above the 1.1500 handle. This would need to be supported by an upper wick showing sellers reacting to a run above that level. Or, alternatively, a breach of 1.1363 which set support last week, after which the 1.1275 level comes into view as the next area of support potential. If bears can chew through those prices, it’ll be evidence of their willingness to take on more control, and that would then highlight supports at 1.1200 and then 1.1100 as levels of interest for downside continuation.

 

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

 

Euro, EUR/USD Talking Points:

  • EUR/USD bulls made a push last week but fell five pips short of re-testing the 1.1500 psychological level.
  • That price remains a big point for the pair as it was tested in April before a 400+ pip reversal appeared.
  • I look into EUR/USD in-depth in each weekly webinar, and you’re welcome to attend the next. Click here to register.

 

EURUSD AD

 

It’s been a surprisingly strong year for EUR/USD as the pair came into 2025 with many forecasting another parity test. In Q4 of 2024 the Euro had dropped like a rock against the U.S. Dollar, setting a fresh two-year-low before finally finding some support around the 1.0200 handle in January.

The change wasn’t fast, as there was continued grind into the February open, but it was that first trading day of February when matters began to shift to a ‘less bearish’ backdrop as a higher-low held above the 1.0200 Fibonacci level, and bulls started to hit back with repeated tests of the 1.0500 handle.

March is when matters began to shift more visibly as a hard sell-off in the USD on the back of recession fears helped to drive a massive move in EUR/USD that could even be considered as historic in scope. That drive continued through the first few weeks of April, even if the reasons in the backdrop began to shift with President Trump taking a softer stance with tariffs.

It was Easter Monday when EUR/USD finally re-tested the 1.1500 handle. That was the first test there since February of 2022, when that price set as a lower-high before sellers took over – and eventually drove below the parity level later that year. When it was re-tested in April, bulls couldn’t get very far above and then a pullback started to show until the 1.1100 level provided a bit of support, leading into a bounce.

The 1.1500 level was almost back in-play last week around the ECB rate decision. The bank sounded less-dovish than expected, and EUR/USD vaulted towards the big figure before bulls suddenly stalled five pips below the level. That remains resistance as we move deeper into June trade.

 

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Grinding Higher

 

Since the 1.1100 test about a month ago, EUR/USD bears haven’t been able to show much for progress, and this goes along with a generally weaker USD that has continued to fall since the resistance test at 102.00 in DXY.

What could make the pair more attractive on the short side is comparison to other majors:  While EUR/USD is holding at a lower-high, GBP/USD set a fresh three-year-high last week, and USD/CAD a fresh 2025 low last Thursday. On a relative basis, there could be attraction on the short-side of the Euro for those that are looking for a bounce in the U.S. Dollar. But that’s the big question at this point, and this puts attention to this week’s CPI report out of the United States.

From the weekly chart of DXY, there could be a case for a USD bounce scenario, as so far the Dollar has held a higher-low at a key Fibonacci level of 98.98. That coincides more with the lower-high in EUR/USD than the fresh highs in GBP/USD or the fresh lows in USD/CAD.

I think there will be a strong USD/JPY component in the mix for the US Dollar, as well, although that pair has shown a tendency to brew traps on either side of the market; and collectively that can make reversal strategies in EUR/USD as one of the more attractive ways of approaching bullish USD setups.

 

U.S. Dollar Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Shorter-Term

 

At this point the daily would continue to show a bullish lean as we have a higher short-term high last week along with a series of higher-lows. So far this week, it’s the 1.1400 level that’s been in as support, so there’s not yet a backdrop for a turn via price action.

This then sets up for a couple of different scenarios: The first would be a test and failure above the 1.1500 handle. This would need to be supported by an upper wick showing sellers reacting to a run above that level. Or, alternatively, a breach of 1.1363 which set support last week, after which the 1.1275 level comes into view as the next area of support potential. If bears can chew through those prices, it’ll be evidence of their willingness to take on more control, and that would then highlight supports at 1.1200 and then 1.1100 as levels of interest for downside continuation.

 

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

 

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025