Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bears Push Towards Parity

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro poised to mark third-consecutive weekly decline- breaks to fresh yearly lows
EUR/USD testing technical downtrend support- risk for exhaustion / price inflection
Resistance 1.0508, 1.0670 (key), 1.0777– Support 1.0352, 1.02, 1.00

Euro has plunged for seven of the last eight weeks with EUR/USD breaking to fresh yearly lows on Friday. The decline is responding to confluent downtrend support today and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable into the close of the month. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was testing support, “at the yearly range lows – risk for price inflection. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to the median-line / 1.0777 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.0587 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.”

Euro broke lower later that week with the sell-off extending nearly 7.9% off the September / yearly highs. The decline halted at confluent downtrend support on Friday near the 2016 swing low at 1.0352. Note that the lower parallel of the descending pitchfork we’ve been tracking converges on this level and we’re looking for a larger reaction off this mark.

Initial weekly resistance now eyed back at the 2023 low-close at 1.0508 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.0670- we will reserve this threshold as our medium-term bearish invalidation level. Subsequent resistance seen at the February low-week close (LWC) at 1.0777 with a breach above the 61.8% retracement at 1.0835 ultimately needed to shift the broader focus back to the long-side for the Euro.

A break / close below the lower parallel (blue) would threaten another accelerated decline with subsequent support objectives seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022 advance at the 1.02-handle and parity (1.00)- look for a larger reaction there IF reached with the risk for downside exhaustion into the 2022 parallel.

Bottom line: A three-week plunge takes EUR/USD into downtrend support and a major pivot zone- risk for downside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of Euro short-exposure / lower protective stops- rallies should be limited to 1.0670 IF price is heading for a break lower with a closer below 1.0352 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.

Keep in mind we have key inflation on tap into the close of a shortened holiday-week. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes here. I’ll publish an updated Euro Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.