CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

EUR/USD, FTSE 100 Forecast: Two trades to watch

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
April 15, 2025 11:56 AM

EUR/USD slips as economic sentiment falls

EUR/USD is falling for a second straight session as the selloff in the USD stabilises.

The US dollar was steady on Tuesday, hovering around its three-year low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen as investors tried to make sense of President Trump's constant changes to his trade tariffs.

The volatility that hit the dollar last week and sent treasury yields surging seems to have calmed somewhat by today, although the market mood remains fragile.

The euro, which has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the sell-off in US assets, is a touch weaker today as investors digest stronger-than-expected industrial production but a slump in economic sentiment.

The ZEW economic sentiment fell to -18.5 in April from 39.8. Meanwhile, German ZEW economic sentiment has plunged -14 in April, down from 51.6 in March, missing estimates of 9.3 by a wide margin.

Erratic changes in trade policy are weighing heavily on expectations in Germany.

Looking ahead, the market focus will remain on ever-changing tariff headlines for the US after President Trump removed smartphones and other add electronics from its duties on China over the weekend, providing some relief.

ECB president Christine Lagarde will be speaking later today and could provide further insight into the central bank's outlook for rates given the murky outlook. The ECB rate decision will be announced on Thursday.

EUR/USD forecast technical analysis

EUR/USD has been trending higher from early March, rising above the 200 SMA and several key resistance levels to reach a peak of 1.1470. The price has eased back from this multi-year high to current levels of 1.1350. The 50 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA in a bullish signal.

While the uptrend remains intact, the RSI is well overbought so buyers should be cautious. A period of consolidation or even a move lower.

Support can be seen at 1.12, the September 2024 high, with a break below here opens the door to 1.10 the psychological level and 1.0940.

Buyers will need to rise above 1.14 and 1.1470 to create a higher high and head towards 1.15.

FTSE 100 rises on optimism of Trump exemptions

The FTSE and its European peers are rising for a fourth straight session amid optimism after Trump said he's considering temporary exemptions on vehicle import tariffs. These could benefit UK car makers that export heavily to the US.

President Trump also pushed ahead with probes targeting semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, keeping UK drug makers such as AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline in focus.

On the data front, figures show that the UK labour market weakened ahead of this month’s tax increase on employers, although wage growth remained strong. This paints a difficult picture for the Bank of England, which also expects an economic hit from U.S. trade tariffs.

In the first three months of this year, UK vacancies fell below pre-pandemic levels for the first time in almost four years, and the number of employees fell by 78,000 in March, marking the biggest drop since 2020. Provisions are likely.

The softening in the jobs market could outweigh the fast pace of pay growth. Average wages rose 5.6% in the three months to February.

Following the data, investors are pricing in a 90% probability of the Bank of England cutting rates by 25 basis points when they meet on May 8. Lower interest rates would benefit domestic stocks such as house builders and retailers. Taylor Wimpey trades up 2.4%. Meanwhile, the pound is trading at a six-month high against the USD.

FTSE 1000 forecast – technical analysis

The FTSE recovered from the 7550 low last week, rebounding higher and bringing the RSI out of oversold territory. The price extended its recovery above 8000, bringing it back into the 8000 to 8400 range within which it traded for most of 2024.

Buyers would need to extend gains above the 200 SMA at 8350 for bulls to gain the upper hand.

Support can be seen at 8000. Below here 7700 comes into focus.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025