GBP/USD forecast: Currency Pair of the Week – June 9, 2025

• GBP/USD forecast: Cable risks a near‑term pullback as trade optimism potentially boosts USD

• Trade‑talk optimism is keeping risk assets supported ahead of the 8 July tariff deadline

• Key UK jobs and US inflation data coming up this week

It has been a decidedly subdued open to Monday’s session, but things will pick up as the week unfolds. US‑China envoys are meeting in London for the first time since the two sides stopped all trade talks. No‑one expects a grand accord, but some sort of agreement to continue trade talks and the resumption of some rare‑earth exports would constitute progress. Still, with the 90‑day tariff cease‑fire expiring on 8 July, any hint of détente keeps risk appetite afloat and, by extension, offers a modest prop to US dollar via the risk channel in our GBP/USD forecast. The White House plainly wants tangible wins before the tariff clock runs down. A mis‑step could sour sentiment sharply, so traders should keep one eye on the headlines.

GBP/USD forecast: UK labour market first out of the traps

Fundamentals take centre stage from Tuesday. The UK labour report will test the pound’s resilience; unemployment has been sticky but pay growth has wobbled. A softer wage print would strengthen the Bank of England’s dovish chorus and, in our GBP/USD forecast, reinforce downward pressure.

The mid‑week spotlight then swings stateside. Wednesday brings US CPI followed on Thursday by PPI. Also on Thursday, we receive the UK’s monthly GDP estimate. With both sides of the pair delivering heavyweight numbers within 24 hours, volatility should pick up markedly from Wednesday lunchtime onwards.

Here is a list of the key data coming up this week, relevant only for the GBP/USD forecast.

GBP/USD technical analysis: Cable stalls at 1.36

Sterling managed a grudging weekly gain, yet the bulls could not crack the 1.3600 barricade, leaving a small bearish-looking reversal candle on Thursday. So, it looks like the path of least resistance could be changing from being to the upside to a bit on the downside, towards sub 1.3500—a key pivotal level. Below that psychological level lies the September 2024 high at 1.3434. Things will get interesting if we go below these levels.

For now, the daily chart of the GBP/USD hangs in a holding pattern, caught between tentative trade‑talk optimism and an imminent barrage of high‑stakes data. A decisive break above 1.36 would re‑energise the rally, opening a path to 1.38, but absent that trigger the near‑term bias tilts to a corrective dip towards 1.3400 and lower.

Looking at the monthly chart of the GBP/USD, we can see that rates have now entered a massif region of resistance between 1.35 to 1.40.

Since the post-Brexit breakdown below this 1.35-1.40 area, the cable has struggled to rise back above this zone on numerous occasions. This time, it is having another crack at it following a 4-month rally. Can the bulls manage a breakthrough this time around or will the bears prevail.

What happens here will have a big influence in the near-term direction. For example, a breakout above this key pivotal area could lead to further technical buying in the months ahead, while if we observes the formation of a bearish reversal here, then this could at least provide sizable drop, even if ultimately we see a breakout later in the year.

Source for all charts used in this article: TradingView.com

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.