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GBPUSD, Nasdaq Outlook: Mixed Reports Heighten Market Uncertainty, What's Next for NFPs?

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
Today 12:59 PM

Key Events

  • Economic indicators decline while earnings rise, deepening market uncertainty
  • NFP is expected to trigger the week’s final wave of volatility ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting
  • The U.S. Dollar holds key support, while major indices remain near resistance, awaiting a clear catalyst
  • Next week: BOE leans toward a rate cut; the Fed likely to hold steady

Despite negative macroeconomic headlines — including a drop in Advance GDP and Core PCE to 0.0% — the U.S. Dollar continues to hold bullish ground against a broadly consolidating currency market. Investor sentiment remains torn between strong mega-cap earnings and concerns over tariff-related economic drag.

This confusion is reflected in the charts: flat ranges, triangle patterns, and head-and-shoulders formations dominate across markets. Traders and price action hover near critical levels, with caution growing around potential bull and bear traps amid heightened geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

We are back in May, the month known for "sell and go away." Is that the case this time?

GBPUSD 4 Hour Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD shows signs of a double top formation, while broader dollar trends point to an inverted head and shoulders on DXY and a head and shoulders on EURUSD.

The risk lies in the mismatch between higher time frame momentum at overbought levels — suggesting a potential long-term reversal — and short-term momentum at oversold levels, which has yet to confirm these patterns.

Key levels will likely determine the next move.

  • If the pair breaks below the 1.3200 support, the next downside target aligns with 1.3080 (the double top projection).
  • Further declines could lead to 1.2930 and 1.2770, in line with the long-term trendline connecting peaks from 2014 to 2021.

GBPUSD Outlook Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a weekly perspective, the RSI is elevated — indicating overbought conditions — and suggests potential for a longer-term pullback from the 2024 highs near 1.3434.

A decisive break above 1.3434 opens the way to 1.3770, 1.4400, and 1.4500, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the 2008–2022 downtrend.

On the downside, a break below the 2014–2021 trendline and the 1.2700 level could revive bearish momentum.

Nasdaq Outlook Weekly Time Frame - Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From a weekly view, Nasdaq rebounded sharply from the 16,300 level but now faces stiff resistance at the 20,000-mark. This level aligns with:

  • The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 decline from 22,245 to 16,324
  • The RSI hitting the neutral 50 zone from below, often a sign of technical resistance

Upside Scenario:

  • A clean break above 20,000 opens the door to 20,370, 21,000, 21,500, and the all-time high near 22,200.

Downside Scenario:

  • If 20,000 holds as resistance, a short-term pullback toward 19,600 and 19,200 is possible.
  • A deeper break below 19,200 may bring 18,500 and 17,700 back into play.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT 

Follow on X:@Rh_waves

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