Gold forecast: Moody’s Downgrade Sparks Haven Hunt as Bulls Eye $3300

Gold forecast turns modestly bullish as Moody’s downgrade revives “Sell America” trade, boosting haven demand
Gold facing critical resistance at $3245–$3275; break above could open door to $3300 and beyond
Fiscal fears and weaker USD create a supportive backdrop for gold but rising yields pose challenge

Gold was coming off its earlier highs at the time of writing in late London trading. Earlier, it was fully in the spotlight as investors had a mini panic as the “Sell America” trade re-emerged with some conviction, this time courtesy of Moody’s downgrading the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The reaction was a classic risk-off: 30-year Treasury yields pierced the symbolic 5% level, equity futures sold off, and haven demand for gold surged. But once Wall Street opened, we saw a bit of the usual dip-buying in stock markets and this in turn caused gold to cool off a little, though not significantly enough to alter the current positive gold forecast.

Before discussing the macro situation, let’s quickly run through the technical as the metal is at a key battleground.

Technical gold forecast: XAU/USD key levels to watch

Source: TradingView.com

From a technical perspective, the price of gold was testing a key battleground at the time of writing—hovering around the $3245–$3275 zone. This range had acted as strong support in recent weeks, but last week’s break down below has turned it into a key resistance area now. It’s also where the 21-day EMA is lurking. A close above this area could be the green light for bulls, confirming the end of the recent corrective phase and potentially paving the way towards $3300, followed by $3360, where the short-term downtrend could potentially cap the upside momentum.

Conversely, failure to break through the above mentioned area could see prices slide back towards key support at $3200, which has proven sticky. A sustained break below this even would open the path to $3167 and $3150—the latter aligning with the 2025 bullish trendline. Breach that, and we could be talking $3100, $3022, or even the psychological $3000 level in a bearish-case scenario.

Key macro concern: US debt

But technicals only tell part of the story. Fundamentally, the mood has soured on US dollar and bonds. Moody’s cited the government’s failure to rein in soaring debt and deficits—hardly surprising, but the downgrade still jolted markets. Interestingly, the dollar dropped sharply, even as yields climbed. That divergence suggests traders are worried about the sustainability of US fiscal policy.

It doesn’t help that trade frictions are in the spotlight right now and unfunded tax cuts are on the way. With Moody’s forecasting a deficit nearing 9% of GDP by 2035, it’s hard to see confidence returning to Treasuries market —especially when China is also pulling back on its holdings.

So, is this just another downgrade that markets shrug off? Maybe. But this time, it could be different. The convergence of rising yields, a weaker dollar, and fiscal dysfunction is not a great mix—not for now, gold likes it.

So, the gold forecast leans bullish as long as the metal can reclaim $3275. If that happens, don’t be surprised to see bulls charge towards $3300 and beyond, especially if US fiscal worries continue to spiral.

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

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