CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

Gold Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Defend Make-or-Break Support

Article By: ,  Sr. Technical Strategist
May 17, 2025 4:00 PM

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels

  • Gold prices plunge into 2025 trend support- rebounds more than 4% off multi-week low
  • XAU/USD risk for price inflection ahead- key range breakout pending
  • Resistance 3265/88, 3355/81 (key), 3431- Support 3132/37 (key), 3018, 2953/56

Gold prices rebounded off key support this week after plunging more than 10.8% off the yearly high. It’s decision time for the bulls at the 2025 uptrend- battle lines drawn on the short-term gold technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD reversal was, “challenging a break of the May opening-range with multi-month trend support now in view at 3132/37- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the November advance and the 100% extension of the April decline. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days further highlights the technical significance of this zone (area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).”

Gold briefly registered an intraday low at 3121 this week before rebounding 4.2% with daily momentum easing off six-month lows. Price is poised to mark the largest weekly decline of the year ahead of the close on Friday with weekly momentum breaking back from overbought territory for the first time since February. The pullback has now completed two-equal legs off the highs and IF a bull-market correction is complete, these lows would need to hold.   

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of an embedded descending pitchfork with the lower parallel further highlighting this week’s rebound off key support at 3132/37. Note that losses below this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated losses with a break / close below needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / invalidate the November uptrend. Subsequent support objectives seen at the lower parallel (currently near ~3080), backed by 3018 and 1.618% extension / February high / April low at 2953/56.

Initial resistance now eyed at the median-line (currently ~3240) backed closely by the 38.2% retracement of the April decline / May open at 3265/88. Bearish invalidation remains unchanged at the record high-day close (HDC) around 3381- strength beyond this level would shift the focus back towards the record high close at 3431.

Bottom line: Gold has responded to key technical support and the first major test of the November uptrend. Risk for exhaustion / price inflection off this mark in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 3132-3288 range for guidance with the bears vulnerable while above this key support pivot. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.

Key Economic Data Releases   

 

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025