Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Support Intact Ahead of Fed, SNB

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Short-term Trade Levels

• USD/CHF rebound off technical support poised to mark third-straight daily advance
• USD/CHF trend resistance in view- risk for exhaustion / price inflection into Fed, SNB
• Resistance 8170, 8217/25 (key), 8316/33- Support 8091-8103 (key), 8060, 8000

The US Dollar is poised to mark a third straight daily advance against the Swiss Franc today with USD/CHF rallying more than 1.3% off the monthly low. A rebound off downtrend support is now approaching resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. Battles lines drawn on the USD/CHF short-term technical charts.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook we noted that USD/CHF had rebounded off near-term technical support with a close above 8280 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery. Price registered an intraday high at 8250 into the June open before breaking lower with USD/CHF testing more significant support at the multi-year downtrend this week. Looking for a reaction off this mark with the FOMC & Swiss National Bank rate decisions on tap over the next 48 hours.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Swisse price action shows USD/CHF trading within a descending channel extended off the May 14^th high. Initial support rests with the 2025 low-day close (LDC) / 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8091-8103 and is backed closely by the 100% extension of the May decline at 8060. A break / close below this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline with subsequent objectives seen at the 80-handle and the 1.618% extension at 7882.   

Initial resistance is eyed with the 61.8% extension at 8170 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 8217/25- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the May decline and the objective monthly open. Ultimately, a breach / close above the 61.8% retracement / 2023 lows at 8316/33 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger trend reversal is underway.

Bottom line: USD/CHF has rebounded off confluent downtrend support with a three-day rally now approaching initial resistance hurdles. Risk for topside exhaustion ahead of event risk into the close of the week. From a trading standpoint, the key range break is 8091-8225 for guidance- rallies would need to be limited to the monthly open for the May downtrend to remain viable with a close sub-8060 needed to mark resumption.

Keep in mind that while no change is expected from the Fed tomorrow, traders will be focused on the updated economic projections on growth, inflation and employment. The SNB is on tap the following day with markets widely expecting the central bank to cut by 25basis points, taking the benchmark rate to 0%. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex