Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bears Go for the Break

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF poised to mark weekly reversal off 2025 high- attempting to break September uptrend
USD/CHF risk for larger correction ahead- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap
Resistance 9147, 9225/48 (key), 9319- Support 8958, 8861/85 (key), 8758

The USD/CHF is attempting to break below a multi-month uptrend with a weekly reversal off the yearly high now underway. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart into February open with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that the, “USD/CHF rally is approaching initial resistance just higher- risk for possible price inflection. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the lower parallel IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 9144 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance…”

The rally registered an intraweek high at 9201 the following week before exhausting with USD/CHF attempting to break the lower parallel of the September pitchfork this week. Risk for a deeper set-back here IF this break holds into the weekly close.

Initial weekly support rests with the November high at 8958 and is backed closely by the 52-week moving average / 38.2% retracement of the September rally at 8861/85. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high was registered last month / a larger reversal is underway with subsequent support objectives seen at the 2021 low near 8758 and the 61.8% retracement at 8690.

Weekly resistance is eyed with the 2024 high-close / January high-week close at 9147/50 with critical resistance steady at 9225/48- a region defined by the 2024 swing high, the 2023 yearly open, and the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline. Breach/ close above this pivot zone is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 100% extension of the September advance at 9319 and the 61.8% retracement at 9455- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: USD/CHF is threatening a break of the September uptrend and leaves the bulls on the defensive early in the month. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 9147 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break below 8957 needed to fuel the next leg of the correction. Ultimately, we are on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low in the weeks ahead.

Keep in mind we are in the early throws of the February opening-range with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.