Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Eye Key Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

• USD/CHF three-month sell-off rebounds off downtrend support- rallies 3.65% off lows
• USD/CHF testing initial resistance ahead U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls- Fed on tap next week
• Resistance 8327, 8402/16 (key), 8758/91- Support 8103 (key), 7769/79, 7669

USD/CHF plummeted more than 12.6% off the yearly highs with price rebounding off technical support into the close of April. The bulls are now poised to mark a third weekly advance with Swissie trading into resistance ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated NFP employment report. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart heading into May trade.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: USD/CHF has been trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the 2022 high with price rebounding off confluent support last month at the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103. The recovery is testing initial weekly resistance today at the 61.8% retracement of the broader 2011 advance at 8327 with major event risk on tap into the May open.

A topside breach above this level could expose key resistance at 8402/16- a region defined by the 2024 low-close, the 2023 low-week close (LWC) and the 2024 yearly open.  Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a breach exposing subsequent resistance seen at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2021 low / 52-week moving average at 8758/91.

A break below this key pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated losses for the greenback with such a scenario exposing the 2011 LWC / 78.6% retracement at 7769/79 and the 2011 low close at 7669- both areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: A three-month sell-off in USD/CHF has rebounded off downtrend support with the recovery now testing initial resistance. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the weekly low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 8416 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow with the FOMC interest rate decision on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex