Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Bulls Eye Pivotal Resistance

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CHF poised to snap five-week advance- responding to long-term technical resistance.
USD/CHF September rally may be vulnerable- risk for near-term exhaustion / price inflection.
Resistance 8900 (key), 9042/45, 9144- Support 8757/75, 8907 (key), 8581

The US Dollar is poised to snap a five-week winning streak against the Swiss Franc with USD/CHF responding to a major resistance zone at multi-month highs. While the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction while below longer-term resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF was testing confluent resistance and that, “the immediate focus is on a breakout of the November opening-range (the election-day range) for guidance. Losses would need to be limited to 8526 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the yearly moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.” USD/CHF broke higher the following week with a 2.5% rally off the monthly low extending into key resistance last week the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range near the 89-handle.

Note that that last week’s high confirms a three-point trendline off the 2022 high (red) with the median-line of a newly identified pitchfork (blue) also converging on this threshold. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone with the broader uptrend at risk while below.

Initial weekly support now rests with the 2021 low / 52-week moving average at 8758/75 and is backed closely by the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance at 8709- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. Losses below this threshold would invalidate the September rally / suggest a more significant high was registered last week. Subsequent support rests with the October weekly reversal close / 61.8% retracement at 8576/81.

A topside breach / close above the 89-handle would mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at the 78.6% retracement / 2024 high-week close (HWC) at 9042/45 and the yearly high-close at 9144- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: The USD/CHF rally exhausted into confluent resistance last week and while the medium-term outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8709 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 89 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.

USD/CHF Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.