US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Weakness Keeps RSI in Oversold Territory

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF gives back the advance from earlier this week to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the week as it appears to be defending the monthly low (0.8100).

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Weakness Keeps RSI in Oversold Territory

Keep in mind, USD/CHF snapped a long-term range as it pushed below the 2023 low (0.8333) during the previous week, and the weakness in the exchange rate may persist as long as the RSI holds below 30.

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In turn, the rebound from the monthly low (0.8100) may turn out to be temporary and USD/CHF may continue to track the descending channel from earlier this year as the 50-Day SMA (0.8808) establishes a negative slope.

With that said, USD/CHF may continue to hold below the former-support zone around the 2023 low (0.8333), but the RSI may show the bearish momentum abating should it recover from oversold territory.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

USD/CHF may attempt to test the monthly low (0.8100) as it gives back the rebound from earlier this week, with a break/close below 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) opening up 0.7810 (161.8% Fibonacci extension).
Next area of interest comes in around 0.7680 (161.8% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of April should it defend the monthly low (0.8100).
Need a move/close above the 0.8333 (2023 low) to 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone to bring the 0.8550 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8590 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.8700 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

GBP/USD Stages Six-Day Rally for First Time in 2025

USD/JPY Defends Monthly Low to Keep RSI Above 30 for Now

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Faces BoC Meeting Ahead of Canada Election

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Clears 2024 High to Push RSI into Overbought Zone

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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