USD/CHF Stages Four-Day Selloff for First Time Since September

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF clears the January low (0.8966) as it tumbles to a fresh yearly low (0.8913), with the weakness in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since September.

USD/CHF Stages Four-Day Selloff for First Time Since September

USD/CHF is on track to mark a four-day selloff for the first time since September after struggling to trade back above the 50-Day SMA (0.9054), and the exchange rate may depreciate over the remainder of the month as it no longer responds to the positive slope in the moving average.

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In turn, USD/CHF may continue to give back the advance from the December low (0.8736) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows, and a move below 30 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in the exchange rate like the price action from last year.

With that said, the selloff in USD/CHF may persist as it carves a bearish price series, but the RSI may show the bearish momentum abating should it struggles to push into oversold territory.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

USD/CHF extends the recent series of lower highs and lows to register a fresh yearly low (0.8913), with a break/close below the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone raising the scope for a move towards the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
Next area of interest comes in around the December low (0.8736), but lack of momentum to break/close below the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone may curb the bearish price series.
Need a move back above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region to bring the monthly high (0.9197) back on the radar, with a close above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to opening up the October 2023 high (0.9245).

Additional Market Outlooks

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Falls from Channel Resistance

USD/JPY Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Above Oversold Zone

US Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Approaches Channel Resistance

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Coils Ahead of Trump Tariffs

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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