CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

AUD/USD weekly outlook: 10 March 2025

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
March 10, 2025 3:48 AM

February’s inflation figures for the US is the main calendar event. But traders will also pay greater attention to smaller economic reports given the growing evidence that the US economy is slowing. Friday saw nonfarm payrolls change add 150k jobs, just short of the 160k expected. PMI reports have also come in surprisingly soft, while ‘prices paid’ by company’s are rising, alongside CPI and expectations of future inflation. The chart shows that core CPI and broad CPI are rising alongside inflation expectations, and we’ll get these figures updated in Wednesday’s CPI report and Friday’s consumer sentiment report.

 

US futures markets have also opened lower today, seemingly because Trump dodged a question on whether he thought his tariffs will tip the US into recession (which is as good as a yes, where markets are concerned). And this further underscores how important incoming data is from the US.

 

It is not a particularly big week for domestic data. Last week’s GDP surprised to the upside at 0.6% q/q. While the consensus among analysts is that it will not derail further cuts from the RBA, I’m not expecting another 25bp cut until July at the earliest, after the election.

 

Business confidence increased to a three-month high of 4 in February according to NAB, with the 6-point month-over-month rise also its highest in three months. The RBA’s 25bp cut and market expectations of another 50bp of cuts this year could further boost confidence this week.

 

 

 

AUD/USD correlations:

 

 

AUD/USD futures – market positioning from the COT report:

Large speculators increased their gross-short exposure to AUD/USD futures for the first week in four by Tuesday’s close. Asset managers also increased gross-shorts for a second week, resulting in net-short exposure rising by ~10k contracts among both sets of traders. Yet AUD/USD went on to close the week higher as the US dollar continued to fall on concerns that the US economy is weakening.

 

 

AUD/USD technical analysis

The Australian dollar enjoyed a strong three days to Wednesday, rebounding from 62c and recouping around 75% of the previous week’s losses. A 2-day pullback doesn’t much of an appetite for a deep retracement, and for now at least is holding above 63c.

 

While I am cautiously bullish on AUD/USD this week, I am doubtful that the US dollar will continue to roll over at the same pace is did last week. And that could cap gains over the near term. As I outlined in this video last week, the US dollar could be in for a bounce before losses resume and sends AUD/USD markedly higher.

 

But with the whipsaws we have seen on AUD/USD over the past two weeks, traders should remain on guard for the unexpected and for trade in both directions.

 

Note that the 1-week implied volatility band sits just within the range of the past two weeks. This plays into my bias that AUD/USD may not be ready for a decent bullish breakout just yet, and trade could remain choppy.

 

 

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

 

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025