Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Halted at Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• AUD/USD rally halted at resistance of a fifth-consecutive week
• Aussie June opening-range preserved just below- key US Inflation data on tap
• Resistance 6511/50 (key), 6671, 6810- Support 6357, 6291-6300 (key), 6153/79

The Australian Dollar continues to trade just below major resistance with AUD/USD now carving the June opening-range around the 52-week moving average. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that the AUD/USD, “rally has been halted at resistance and the focus is on a breakout of this multi-week range just below. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6285 IF price is heading higher on this stretch..” Aussie remains below critical resistance into the start of June with yet another failed attempt to breach keeping the bulls at bay into the close of the week.

The focus remains on a key pivot zone at 6511/50- a region define by the July close low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024 decline. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this zone. A topside breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg of the advance towards the upper parallel with broader bearish invalidation eyed at the 2019 low near 6670- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial weekly support rests with the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357 and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range / low-week close (LWC) at 6290-6300- weakness below this threshold would threaten resumption of the broader downtrend. Subsequent objective seen at 61.8% retracement / 2022 & 2024 highs at 6153/79 with critical support steady at 6007/45.

Bottom line: The Australian Dollar is trading just below technical resistance for a fifth consecutive week. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the June opening-range in the days ahead with the broader April rally vulnerable while below 6550.

Keep in mind we get key U.S. inflation data next week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap Wednesday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex