Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Halted at Resistance
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels
- AUD/USD surges more than 9% off multi-year lows- rally stalls at downtrend resistance
- Australian Dollar near-term range breakout imminent– US Core PCE, NFPs on tap
- Resistance 6408/29, ~6465 (key), 6550– Support 6348/62, 6245/47 (key), 6170/88
The Australian Dollar is struggling to mount a fourth consecutive weekly advance with a rebound off downtrend support now testing trend resistance at the yearly high. A tight range has formed just below, and the immediate focus is on a breakout with the recent rally vulnerable while below the weekly high. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this AUD/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar staged an impressive V-shaped recovery month with AUD/USD surging more than 9% off multi-year lows. The advance has now extended into confluent resistance at 6408/29- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2024 decline and the February swing high. Note that the upper parallel of the descending pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this zone- looking for a reaction off this mark.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within a well-defined range with last week’s opening-range still intact. Initial support rests with the August / April lows at 6348/62- a break / daily close below this threshold would threaten a larger setback towards the 38.2% retracement / monthly open at 6245/47 with key support steady at the 2022 low / 2025 yearly open at 6170/88 (an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Losses below this threshold would mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
Ultimately, a topside breach / close above the 200-day moving average near ~6465 would be needed to validate a breakout of the October downtrend / suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement at 6550 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680.
Bottom line: A 9% rally off multi-year lows takes AUD/USD into multi-month downtrend resistance- risk for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to 6245 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 200-day moving average need to fuel the next leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation tomorrow with Non-Farm Payrolls on tap into the monthly cross. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts
Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.
FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.
This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.
Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.
© FOREX.COM 2025