Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Poised for Breakout

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• AUD/USD rallies more than 1.1% into June open- testing technical resistance today
• Australian Dollar multi-week range breakout in focus heading into June– NFPs on tap
• Resistance 6495/97, 6550 (key), 6622– Support 6432/43, 6402, 6348/62 (key)

The Australian Dollar broke back above the 200-day moving average this week with AUD/USD testing resistance at the 65-handle today. Its decision time for the Aussie as the bulls threaten to breakout of a multi-month range in price. Battlelines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts heading into NFPs.  

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was trading, “within the confines of a multi-week consolidation range and the immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6348 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6550 ultimately needed to mark resumption of the broader April rally.” Aussie attempted to breakout into the close of the month but failed at uptrend resistance with price unable to mark a daily close above range resistance. AUD/USD is testing this resistance zone again today and the focus is on a possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead as the bulls attempt to clear this month-long range in price.    

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD in testing resistance today at the 2025 high-close / 61.8% extension of the Friday rally at 6495-6504 with key resistance seen just higher at 63540/50- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September decline and the 100% extension. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week and a breach / close above would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the Aussie advance. Initial breakout objectives eyed at the September low at 6622 and the November high-day close (HDC) at 6680.

Initial support rests with monthly open / 200-day moving average at 6432/43 and is backed closely by the May open at 6402. Ultimately, a break / close below the April / August lows at 6348/62 would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway towards broader bullish invalidation at 6300- look for larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: Aussie is attempting to mark a fresh yearly high-close today but still shy of uptrend resistance just higher. The immediate focus is on a breakout of the weekly opening-range for guidance with the long-bias vulnerable into the upper parallel. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6400 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 6550 needed to fuel the next major leg of the April advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Friday with key inflation data slated for next week. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Key AUD/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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• British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Threatens Major Breakout

Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex