British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Stalls at Pivotal Resistance

British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels

British Pound breaks September downtrend / January & February range highs- rallies 3.2% off monthly lows
GBP/USD weekly opening-range breakout in focus- outlook constructive above monthly open
Resistance 1.2609/13, 1.2673, 1.2731/89 (key)- Support 1.2487-1.2513, 1.2395 (key), 1.2349

The British Pound broke through a multi-month downtrend and the February opening range last week with the rally extending nearly 4.5% off the yearly low. The bulls have stalled at initial resistance this week and we’re looking for potential inflection off this mark. These are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Short-term Outlook, we noted that GBP/USD was approaching yearly open-resistance and that, “losses would need to be limited to 1.23 IF price is heading for a larger recovery here with a breach above 1.2613 ultimately needed to suggest a more significant reversal is underway.” Sterling plunged into the February open to briefly register an intraday low at 1.2249 before reversing sharply with GBP/USD closing markedly higher on the day (false break). The subsequent rally has now extended more than 3.2% off the monthly low with a breakout of the September downtrend clearing the February opening-range.

The rally is straddling near-term resistance at the 38.2% retracement of the September decline / June & July lows around 1.2609/13- risk for inflection here with the medium-term outlook still constructive while above the objective monthly open.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork with the median-line being challenged today ahead of the U.S. open. A break of the weekly opening-range lows would threaten a deeper pullback here towards the 25% parallel with near-term bullish invalidation now set to the November low / 2025 yearly open at 1.2487-1.2514. Ultimately, a break / close below the February open at 1.2394 would be needed to mark downtrend resumption.

Topside resistance objectives are eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance at 1.2673 and 1.2731/89- a region defined by the 2024 yearly open, the February 2019 swing low and the 200-day moving average. A breach / close above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger trend reversal is underway. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with subsequent resistance seen at the March high-day close (HDC) at 1.2857 and the 1.29-handle.

Bottom line: The British Pound has broken out of a multi-month downtrend with the rally now testing initial resistance hurdles. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.2487 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.2673 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get U.S. 4Q GDP figures and key inflation data next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases

Active Short-term Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.