Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breaks Through Support

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CAD breaks multi-year slope support- weekly momentum plunges to four-year lows
USD/CAD decline now approaching initial support- risk for exhaustion / price inflection
Resistance 1.3721, 1.3795, 1.3961/78 (key)– Support 1.3504/23, 1.3360, 1.3218

The Canadian Dollar is on the offensive again this week with a break of multi-year trend support taking USD/CAD to eight-month lows today. Price is now within striking distance of initial support objectives and the first major test for the bears. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that the USD/CAD recovery had failed at resistance near the yearly moving average and that our focus was on this pullback into, “key support at 1.3721/94- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below needed to invalidate the 2022 uptrend / suggest a larger reversal is underway.” USD/CAD closed below this key pivot zone last week with the subsequent decline now extending more than 2.9% off the May highs.

Weekly momentum has now dropped to the lowest levels since 2021 and a break of the 2021 uptrend (2022 trendline) threatens further losses ahead. Initial weekly support rests at the 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement of the late-2023 advance near 1.3504/23. Note that basic channel support converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this zone (area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached). Subsequent support rests with the 2024 low-week clow (LWC) at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218.

Weekly resistance is now eyed back at 1.3721 & 1.3795. Broader bearish invalidation is now lowered to the 52-week moving average / 2022 swing high near ~1.3961/78- a breach / close above the yearly channel would ultimately be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

Bottom line: USD/CAD has broken below multi-year uptrend support and threatens further losses in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on stretch towards 1.3523 IF reached- rallies should be limited to 1.3795 IF price is heading lower on this break with a close sub-1.35 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

Keep in mind the FOMC interest rate decision is on tap next week with the markets anticipating an updated batch of economic projections on growth, employment, and inflation. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

US/ Canada Economic Data Release

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.