Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Bulls Go For the Break

Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

USD/CAD attempting to mark fifth-weekly advance- US inflation, NFPs on tap
Bulls attempting breakout of major resistance pivot today- focus on weekly close
Resistance 1.3881/99, 1.3984/99 (key), 1.4115– Support ~1.3830s, 1.3745/73 (key), ~1.3609

USD/CAD surged more than 3.7% off the September lows with the rally now attempting to breach a major resistance zone near the 2023 highs. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart heading into NFPs / November open.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that a reversal off support at multi-month lows was approaching initial resistance and that, “losses should be limited to 1.3517 IF price is heading for a breakout here with a close above 1.3647 needed to fuel the next leg higher.” USD/CAD broke higher that week with price now extending more than 3.7% off the September lows. Note that weekly momentum has also reached the highest levels of the year and a breach above 70 would offer further validation for the breakout of the multi-year consolidation pattern.

The rally attempting to mark a fifth-consecutive weekly advance with USD/CAD now testing pivotal resistance at 1.3881/99- a region defined by the 2022 high-week close (HWC) and the April high-close (HC). A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards the next major technical hurdle at the 2020 March reversal close / 100% extension of the 2023 advance at 1.3984/99- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the 2016 HWC at 1.4115 and the 100% extension of the December advance at 1.4189.

Look for initial weekly support along the median-line (currently near ~1.3830s) backed the 61.8% retracement of the August decline / April high-0clsoe at 1.3745/77- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a break below the median-line threatening a retest of the yearly moving average near ~1.3609.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is attempting to breach technical resistance here into the 1.39-handle and the focus is on a weekly close above this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops- losses should be limited to the 1.3745 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivot zone needed to keep the focus on a rally towards 1.3990- an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection If reached.

Keep in mind we have major US inflation data on tap into the monthly close with NFPs slated for Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

US/ Canada Economic Data Release

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.