DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch

DAX rises but the mood is fragile due to Trump’s erratic trade moves

• GFK German consumer confidence rises to -19.9
• Trump delayed 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9
• DAX consolidates around 24,000

The DAX, along with its European peers, is edging higher amid a cautious market mood. While the market cheers Donald Trump's delaying of his threat of 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9th, but his erratic policy shifts keep the market nervous.

Trump's U-turn on EU tariffs highlights how unpredictable his trade policies can be, undermining fragile investor confidence in the US economy.

On the data front, JFK consumer confidence edged higher to -19.9 in June, its highest level since November 2024, but slightly below expectations of -19.7. The mood remains low with uncertainty still elevated owing to global trade tensions, and the persistent fear of another economic stagnation. These concerns encourage households to prioritise savings over spending.

Eurozone economic sentiment data is due shortly and is expected to show that morale improved slightly to 94 in May, up from 93.6.

Still, the DAX is trading around record levels on expectations that the ECB will continue cutting interest rates in the June meeting and potentially a further 25 basis point cut in the second half of the year.

DAX forecast – technical analysis

The DAX recovery from the 18,800 low ran into resistance at 24,161, the record high. The price is consolidating around the 24,000 round number.

Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50, will look to rise meaningfully above 24k to head towards 24,500.

Support can be seen at around 23,500, the March high. Below here, 23,000, the round number comes into focus,

GBP/USD trades around a 3-year high, is there further to run?

• GBP rose last week after supportive retail sales & CPI data
• USD rises but remains near multi-year lows
• GBP/USD rose to 1.3590 a 3-year high

GBP/USD rose to a fresh three-year high on Tuesday amid strong demand after a week packed with solid UK data and ongoing USD weakness.

The pound rose almost 1% last week following stronger-than-expected retail sales and an inflation report showing that price pressures were stronger than expected, about 3.5%.

As a result, the Bank of England is less likely to cut interest rates anytime soon. The markets are pricing in just a 15% chance of a cut in the June meeting, down from 50% just a few weeks ago. Several policymakers have said that they would want to see more sustained disinflation before cutting rates further.

The pair could have further to run, especially if the US dollar continues to weaken. The dollar fell last week amid concerns over the US debt pile and as Trump's tariff threats reinforced the sell-America trade.

Near term, focus will shift to core PCE inflation and Fed speakers this week, which could swing dollar sentiment. Stickier-than-expected inflation would support the Federal Reserve's patience stance towards rate cuts.

Today attention is also on US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures it could offer more insight into the health of the US economy.

GBP/USD forecast - technical analysis

GBP/USD continues to trade in a rising channel dating back to the start of the year, rising above the mid-point of the channel to a 3-year high of 1.3590.

Buyers supported by the RSI above 50 will look to extend gains further, brining 1.3750 the 2022 high into focus.

Support is seen at 1,3450 the April high. A break below here negates the near-term uptrend, bringing 1.33 into focus. A break below 1.32 creates a lower low and puts the bears in control.