EUR/USD, AUD/USD, S&P 500 Analysis: COT Report

View related analysis:

Market positioning from the COT report – 8 April 2025:

Large speculators reduced gross-short exposure to Australian dollar futures (AUD) futures by -10% (-10.2k contracts) and increased longs by 9% (2.2k contracts), reducing net-short exposure by -12.5k contracts
Net-short exposure to Canadian dollar futures (CAD) fell to a 6-month low
Large speculators derisked against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) by shedding gross-longs by 29% (-3.3k contracts) and gross-shorts by -16% (-9.1k contracts)
Gross-short exposure to Swiss France (CHF) futures plunged by -26% (-12.2k contracts), as traders questioned whether being short the ‘go to’ safe haven currency was a good idea
They also culled gross-short exposure to Japanese yen futures (JPY) by -26% (-10.3k contracts)
Traders bet again energy by increasing gross-short exposure to WTI crude oil by 12% (18.5k contracts) and trimming shorts by -3% (-9.4k contracts)
Asset managers went all in on shorting S&P 500 contracts by increasing gross-short exposure by 32% (66.9k contracts). Flipped to net-short Dow Jones (DJI) futures and reduced net-long exposure to Nasdaq (NQ) futures by -10.2k contracts

US dollar positioning (IMM data) – COT report:

The US dollar index finally closed below 100 last week, to mark its first weekly close below the milestone level since July 2023. And that also suggests that asset managers may have already flipped to net-short exposure to the dollar index, as they were only net-long by around 2l contracts by Tuesday’s close.

Still, futures traders remain effectively net-short the US dollar by -$5 billion according to the IMM (International Money Market).

How the US dollar index trades around 100 is key going forward, given the level has held as support since April 2022.

EUR/USD (Euro dollar futures) positioning – COT report:

Asset managers piled into bullish EUR/USD bets last week, increasing gross longs by 28.5k contracts (7.4%), sending their net-long exposure to a 6-month high. Large speculators also increased their net-long exposure by 8.2k contracts to mark their fourth week of net-long exposure.

Commodity FX (AUD, CAD, NZD) futures – COT report:

Australian dollar (AUD) futures

AUD/USD formed a solid recovery from the 59c handle last week, and erased all of the prior week’s gains. Large speculators and shed gross shorts by -10.2k contracts to mark the fastest pace of short covering since June, and asset managers closed -11.7k contracts (fastest pace of short covering since May). However, asset managers also increased longs by 8k contracts – and that was before AUD/USD began its strong rebound from Wednesday’s low.

Canadian dollar (CAD) futures

Net-short exposure has been flagging a potential bullish reversal for the Canadian dollar for several months. So it is good to finally see the Canadian dollar strengthen, while USD/CAD collapses. Net-short exposure has fallen to a 6-month low among large speculators, and shows the potential to fall further given the strong bullish move seen on the Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

New Zealand dollar (NZD) futures

Asset managers and large speculators also reduced their net-short exposure to New Zealand dollar futures. However, they appear to be derisking away from the Kiwi dollar, given both longs and shorts were trimmed. Still, like the Australian and Canadian dollar, NZD/USD performed a strong recovery in the second half of the week which was presumably a combination of fresh longs and further short covering. Overall, it appears we have seen the cycle lows for commodity FX.

S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures positioning – COT report:

Bears did not shy away from shorting US indices at the beginning of last week, with asset managers increasing their gross-short exposure to S&P 500 futures by 33% (67k contracts). This marked the fastest rise of shorts since December 2022 and pulled their net-long exposure to the least bullish level since December 2023.

However, given the strong rebound in the second half of the week, I suspect many if not all of these shorts have capitulated.

It is also worth noting that asset managers have been betting against the Nasdaq for a much longer period of time.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.