CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY

Article By: ,  Sr. Strategist
November 4, 2024 8:16 PM

Euro Talking Points:

There’s been some change-of-pace in the past two weeks. Just a couple weeks ago EUR/USD was in a continued sell-off as the pair was red for 17 of 19 days.

I looked at a support level in the webinar that week at 1.0765 and that came into play a day later, which led to an initial bounce. That bounce was quickly faded, however, and last week, sellers made another run at that support but were unable to test the low. Support ended up showing at a trendline projection and that led to am ore spirited bounce and this time, price was able to stretch up for a re-test of the 200-day moving average.

The NFP report on Friday brought bears back into the mix after an abysmal headline number which, normally, would be thought to equate to USD-weakness. Instead, it seems as though election dynamics are at-play and with such a meager headline print, that could be seen as supportive for Trump which, in-turn, could be construed as USD-positive. I looked deeper into that earlier this morning and I’ll dig further behind that in tomorrow’s webinar.

EUR/USD finished last Friday with a bearish engulfing formation but given the fast shifting around election odds over the weekend, USD-weakness has taken-hold ahead of tomorrow’s election; and once again EUR/USD is re-testing the 200-day moving average and the 1.0900 level that had stalled the advance last week.

 

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/USD on Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Dynamics

 

Anyone that’s followed my work for any length of time will know that I try to steer away from politics and headlines and towards price action, as that can at least present some opportunity for strategy.

In this case, it seems difficult to diverge away from the political impact of tomorrow’s election. Given the stout run of USD-strength that’s shown in October as odds for a Trump victory have increased, it really seems the two are intertwined, to a degree. And elections present their own risks so tying a trade idea directly to an election result seems to invite another, less manageable risk into the equation.

What I can do, however, is track price from the four-hour chart to find levels that may be a bit more usable around the event. And for those looking to steer further away from the election dynamics, I’ll look at EUR/JPY a little lower in this article.

In EUR/USD four-hour, there’s been continued higher-highs and higher-lows. The same zone that I looked at in last week’s webinar, from 1.0805-1.0811 remains of interest as that’s been defended with a higher-low, and a push below that will illustrate an element of buyers losing control of the short-term move.

There’s potential for higher-low support in the same 1.0862-1.0872 area, confluent with the 200-day moving average.

Sitting overhead is a major zone with some long-term importance at 1.0943-1.0960. Bulls showing stall at that zone could open the door for longer-term bearish swing scenarios such as I had looked at in the last two webinars.

 

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/USD on Tradingview

 

EUR/JPY

 

While the Euro has shown strength since the oversold snap back against the USD, EUR/JPY has shown a cleaner technical backdrop.

I looked at this in the weekend forecast two weeks ago and, at the time, EUR/JPY had already broken out from an ascending triangle formation but wasn’t able to take-out the 165.00 level yet.

The pullback from that psychological level had so far held support at a key spot of 163.90, helping to set higher-low support, at which point the breakout extended again in early trade last week. I was targeting resistance at 166.25 at the time and that was traded through last Wednesday.

Since then, however, the pair has been pulling back and so far, we have support holding at prior resistance of 165.00. There’s also support as taken from the bullish trendline that had previously made up the ascending triangle formation.

The 200-day moving average is also of interest here, particularly if we see a test below the big figure, and that currently plots around 164.75.

For next resistance, I’m tracking the 167.50 psychological level.

 

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/JPY on Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

 

Euro Talking Points:

 

EURUSD AD

 

There’s been some change-of-pace in the past two weeks. Just a couple weeks ago EUR/USD was in a continued sell-off as the pair was red for 17 of 19 days.

I looked at a support level in the webinar that week at 1.0765 and that came into play a day later, which led to an initial bounce. That bounce was quickly faded, however, and last week, sellers made another run at that support but were unable to test the low. Support ended up showing at a trendline projection and that led to am ore spirited bounce and this time, price was able to stretch up for a re-test of the 200-day moving average.

The NFP report on Friday brought bears back into the mix after an abysmal headline number which, normally, would be thought to equate to USD-weakness. Instead, it seems as though election dynamics are at-play and with such a meager headline print, that could be seen as supportive for Trump which, in-turn, could be construed as USD-positive. I looked deeper into that earlier this morning and I’ll dig further behind that in tomorrow’s webinar.

EUR/USD finished last Friday with a bearish engulfing formation but given the fast shifting around election odds over the weekend, USD-weakness has taken-hold ahead of tomorrow’s election; and once again EUR/USD is re-testing the 200-day moving average and the 1.0900 level that had stalled the advance last week.

 

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/USD on Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Dynamics

 

Anyone that’s followed my work for any length of time will know that I try to steer away from politics and headlines and towards price action, as that can at least present some opportunity for strategy.

In this case, it seems difficult to diverge away from the political impact of tomorrow’s election. Given the stout run of USD-strength that’s shown in October as odds for a Trump victory have increased, it really seems the two are intertwined, to a degree. And elections present their own risks so tying a trade idea directly to an election result seems to invite another, less manageable risk into the equation.

What I can do, however, is track price from the four-hour chart to find levels that may be a bit more usable around the event. And for those looking to steer further away from the election dynamics, I’ll look at EUR/JPY a little lower in this article.

In EUR/USD four-hour, there’s been continued higher-highs and higher-lows. The same zone that I looked at in last week’s webinar, from 1.0805-1.0811 remains of interest as that’s been defended with a higher-low, and a push below that will illustrate an element of buyers losing control of the short-term move.

There’s potential for higher-low support in the same 1.0862-1.0872 area, confluent with the 200-day moving average.

Sitting overhead is a major zone with some long-term importance at 1.0943-1.0960. Bulls showing stall at that zone could open the door for longer-term bearish swing scenarios such as I had looked at in the last two webinars.

 

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/USD on Tradingview

 

EUR/JPY

 

While the Euro has shown strength since the oversold snap back against the USD, EUR/JPY has shown a cleaner technical backdrop.

I looked at this in the weekend forecast two weeks ago and, at the time, EUR/JPY had already broken out from an ascending triangle formation but wasn’t able to take-out the 165.00 level yet.

The pullback from that psychological level had so far held support at a key spot of 163.90, helping to set higher-low support, at which point the breakout extended again in early trade last week. I was targeting resistance at 166.25 at the time and that was traded through last Wednesday.

Since then, however, the pair has been pulling back and so far, we have support holding at prior resistance of 165.00. There’s also support as taken from the bullish trendline that had previously made up the ascending triangle formation.

The 200-day moving average is also of interest here, particularly if we see a test below the big figure, and that currently plots around 164.75.

For next resistance, I’m tracking the 167.50 psychological level.

 

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley, EUR/JPY on Tradingview

 

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025