Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bulls Eye Key Breakout

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Euro rebound off downtrend support now testing range resistance- breakout pending
EUR/USD threat for larger recovery while above yearly open- US 4Q GDP, Core PCE on tap
Resistance 1.05, 1.0573/87 (key), 1.0677- Support 1.0352/54, 1.0271, 1.02 (key)

Euro is trading near the yearly high with a rebound off downtrend support threatening a larger recovery in the weeks ahead. The focus remains on a breakout of the January range for guidance with the bears still vulnerable while above the yearly open. Battle lines drawn into the close of the month on the Euro weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST (next session April 28).

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD was rangebound just above downtrend support and that , “The focus is on a breakout of the 1.02-1.05 range for guidance here with bears vulnerable while above slope support.” The Euro recovery extended 2.9% of the monthly low with the 1.05-handle holding resistance for now.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2016 low / 2025 yearly open at 1.0352/54 and is backed by the objective low-week close at 1.0271. Key support remains with the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 1.02 with a break below the lower parallel (blue) ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg off the decline towards parity.

Key weekly resistance remains at 1.0573/87- a region defined by the 100% extension of the January advance, the 38.2% retracement of the September decline, and the 2023 low-week close (LWC). Note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and break / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance eyed at the April LWC at 1.0678 and the 52-week moving average / February LWC at 1.0744/77- look for larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: A rebound off downtrend support is now within striking distance of trend resistance with the focus remains on a breakout of this multi-week range. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the yearly open IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.0587 needed to suggest a larger turn is underway.

Keep in mind we are heading into the close of the month with U.S. 4Q GDP and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on tap next week. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.