CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

EUR/USD, Dow Outlook: April Tariffs Stall Market Rebounds

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
March 27, 2025 10:25 AM

Key Events Ahead:

  • US Unemployment Claims and Final GDP
  • US Core PCE on Friday and the Upcoming NFP Week
  • April Tariff Quotas Support a Cautious Market Outlook

Tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, auto tariffs, trade war fears—these themes have dominated headlines ever since Trump’s trade agenda came into focus. We witnessed a pre-tariff market movement marked by a rush in Chinese exports, and now, it feels like we’re in the eye of an uncertain storm. Are we witnessing merely heated negotiations, or is this the beginning of a new economic landscape shaking the markets until all is priced in?

Regardless of the narrative, market momentum has taken the lead. Oversold levels on indices resemble those seen in 2022 and 2023 on weekly timeframes, while overbought levels on gold mirror peaks from 2024, 2020, and 2011 on the monthly scale. This supports potential reversals from a momentum perspective. However, persistent concerns over tariff consequences are keeping these reversals on a cautious edge.

US indices are facing bearish volatility risks as they test resistance zones, while gold exhibits bullish volatility risks as it tests support levels. As for currencies, the US Dollar is experiencing a cautious bullish rebound, mirrored by a tentative bearish rebound in the euro, pound, and yen. These currencies are navigating one key level at a time, leaving longer-term projections quite uncertain.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

EURUSD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

From a daily perspective, the EURUSD pair has met the projected target of a double top formation, reversing from the 1.0940 resistance zone and touching down at 1.0730. This level aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the March 2025 uptrend from the 1.0370 low to the 1.0955 high. A decisive breach below 1.0730 could expose the next potential support levels at 1.0660 and 1.0590.

On the upside, if the pair holds above 1.0730, former support levels at 1.0790 and 1.0820—now resistance—may limit gains before a confirmed bullish momentum resumes toward the 1.0950 high and potentially higher towards the critical 1.1040 resistance. This latter level aligns with the upper boundary of the euro’s broader downtrend extending from the 2008 highs.

Dow Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The Dow’s positive rebound above the 42,000 barrier is currently facing resistance in the 42,600 zone, amid a persistently uncertain outlook shaped by US tariffs. A sustained breakout above 42,600 could extend the rally toward 43,000, then 44,400, and possibly 45,000—reinforcing a more bullish long-term view.

Conversely, failure to hold above 42,600 may trigger downside pressure, with support levels likely near 42,100, 41,900, 41,700, and 41,400. A deeper decline could reinforce bearish sentiment, possibly validating a double top pattern around the 45,000-mark.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025