CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

EUR/USD Soars Ahead of Expected ECB Rate Cut

Article By: ,  Sr. Strategist
April 11, 2025 7:53 PM

EUR/USD Talking Points:

  • It was a big week for EUR/USD as the pair pushed up to a fresh three-year-high.
  • It was also a dramatic week for the US Dollar, driving a flurry of ‘de-dollarization’ claims on social media, similar to the prior weekend’s claims of ‘Black Monday’ ahead of this week’s open.
  • For next week the ECB is widely expected to cut rates again, explained further in the below video.

EUR/USD had a strong technical backdrop earlier in the week. I looked at the pair as my favored short-USD scenario in the Tuesday webinar, highlighting the higher-lows at the 1.0900 handle. And as I said then, the 1.0943 Fibonacci level remained a big deal to me, and ultimately that’s what helped to set another higher-low on Wednesday.

After that – a massive move developed with EUR/USD spiking up to a fresh three-year-high. The USD dropped in dramatic fashion and USD/JPY even threatened a larger breakdown move.

While we have seen some recovery in equities there are other items that remain of concern, such as the spike in Treasury yields that showed this week, or the parabolic-like move that developed in gold. These items suggest that we may not have seen the apex of volatility just yet, and they remain on the front burner for next week.

In FX-land, next week’s ECB rate decision is expected to bring another rate cut and the question here is whether bulls can show trend continuation by holding support at higher-lows. The 1.1275 level has some longer-term consideration as this is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move, which is the same retracement that produced the 50% marker at 1.0943 that’s been resistance-turned-support of late. Below that, the 1.1200 handle remains key as that was last year’s high, holding bulls at bay on multiple occasions before the Q4 reversal developed. And then 1.1100 even has some interest as this was prior resistance from earlier in April and, to date, hasn’t been re-tested as support.

 

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Bigger Picture Resistance Potential

 

EUR/USD made a charge at the 1.1500 handle but fell less than 30 pips short of a test. But as covered before, a psychological level of that magnitude can produce impact without actually having to come into play, as getting closer and closer to what seems an obvious area of resistance can begin to dissuade bulls from chasing the move higher, thereby motivating profit taking, especially after a really strong move.

But that becomes the next major level of resistance overhead, in my mind. And above that, there’s a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1686 and this is related to the 1.1275 (61.8%) and 1.0943 (50%) levels.

EUR/USD Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Bullish Structure

 

The shorter-term four-hour chart highlights the continued build of bullish structure and as you’ll notice the 1.1275 level has already come in for a short-term support test. Below that, 1.1200 was Q3 and 2024 resistance, and below that, 1.1100 was earlier resistance in April.

Even the 1.1000 handle retains some interest as it was 1.0900 that helped to set lows earlier this week.

The trend has developed quite a bit since the 200-day moving average test from late-March, but I’d probably look to closed body breaks on the daily through 1.0900 as an indication of failure from bulls to hold the trend.

 

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

 

 

 

EUR/USD Talking Points:

  • It was a big week for EUR/USD as the pair pushed up to a fresh three-year-high.
  • It was also a dramatic week for the US Dollar, driving a flurry of ‘de-dollarization’ claims on social media, similar to the prior weekend’s claims of ‘Black Monday’ ahead of this week’s open.
  • For next week the ECB is widely expected to cut rates again, explained further in the below video.

 

Video

 

EUR/USD had a strong technical backdrop earlier in the week. I looked at the pair as my favored short-USD scenario in the Tuesday webinar, highlighting the higher-lows at the 1.0900 handle. And as I said then, the 1.0943 Fibonacci level remained a big deal to me, and ultimately that’s what helped to set another higher-low on Wednesday.

After that – a massive move developed with EUR/USD spiking up to a fresh three-year-high. The USD dropped in dramatic fashion and USD/JPY even threatened a larger breakdown move.

While we have seen some recovery in equities there are other items that remain of concern, such as the spike in Treasury yields that showed this week, or the parabolic-like move that developed in gold. These items suggest that we may not have seen the apex of volatility just yet, and they remain on the front burner for next week.

In FX-land, next week’s ECB rate decision is expected to bring another rate cut and the question here is whether bulls can show trend continuation by holding support at higher-lows. The 1.1275 level has some longer-term consideration as this is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move, which is the same retracement that produced the 50% marker at 1.0943 that’s been resistance-turned-support of late. Below that, the 1.1200 handle remains key as that was last year’s high, holding bulls at bay on multiple occasions before the Q4 reversal developed. And then 1.1100 even has some interest as this was prior resistance from earlier in April and, to date, hasn’t been re-tested as support.

 

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Bigger Picture Resistance Potential

 

EUR/USD made a charge at the 1.1500 handle but fell less than 30 pips short of a test. But as covered before, a psychological level of that magnitude can produce impact without actually having to come into play, as getting closer and closer to what seems an obvious area of resistance can begin to dissuade bulls from chasing the move higher, thereby motivating profit taking, especially after a really strong move.

But that becomes the next major level of resistance overhead, in my mind. And above that, there’s a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1686 and this is related to the 1.1275 (61.8%) and 1.0943 (50%) levels.

 

EURUSD AD

 

EUR/USD Monthly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

 

EUR/USD Bullish Structure

 

The shorter-term four-hour chart highlights the continued build of bullish structure and as you’ll notice the 1.1275 level has already come in for a short-term support test. Below that, 1.1200 was Q3 and 2024 resistance, and below that, 1.1100 was earlier resistance in April.

Even the 1.1000 handle retains some interest as it was 1.0900 that helped to set lows earlier this week.

The trend has developed quite a bit since the 200-day moving average test from late-March, but I’d probably look to closed body breaks on the daily through 1.0900 as an indication of failure from bulls to hold the trend.

 

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025