CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

EUR/USD Recovers as Chair Powell Remains Willing to Adjust Policy

Article By: ,  Strategist
February 11, 2025 5:15 PM

US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD

EUR/USD retraces the decline from the start of the week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterates that ‘we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance’ while testifying in front of Congress.

EUR/USD Recovers as Chair Powell Remains Willing to Adjust Policy

EUR/USD trades to a fresh weekly high (1.0344) as Chairman Powell tells US lawmakers that ‘we will adjust our policy stance in a manner that best promotes our maximum-employment and price-stability goals,’ and it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will continue to pursue a less restrictive policy as the central bank remains ‘committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.’

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

In turn, the US Dollar may face headwinds ahead of the next Fed meeting in March as the Fed appears to be on track to implement lower US interest rates in 2025, and the update to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep EUR/USD afloat as the report is anticipated to easing inflation.

US Economic Calendar

Even though the headline CPI is anticipated to hold steady at 2.9% in January, the core rate is expected to narrow to 3.1% from 3.2% per annum the month prior, and signs of slowing inflation may drag on the Greenback as it encourages the Fed to further unwind its restrictive policy.

However, a higher-than-expected CPI print may keep the FOMC on the sidelines as the US economy shows little signs of a recession, and evidence of persistent price growth may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it puts pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates on hold.

With that said, the rebound in EUR/USD may turn out to be temporary as the Fed follows a data- dependent approach in managing monetary policy, but the exchange rate may stage a larger rebound over the coming days as it bounces back ahead of the monthly low (1.0211).

EUR/USD Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

  • EUR/USD extends the rebound from the weekly low (1.0286) to halt a three-day selloff, with a move above 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) bringing the monthly high (1.0443) on the radar.
  • A break/close above the 1.0448 (2023 low) to 1.0480 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone may push EUR/USD towards the January high (1.0533), but lack of momentum to push above 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) may keep the exchange rate within the opening range for February.
  • At the same time, failure to defend the monthly low (1.0211) may lead to a test of the January low (1.0178), with a close below 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a move towards parity.

Additional Market Outlooks

USD/JPY Rebound Keeps RSI Above Oversold Zone Ahead of Fed Testimony

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Remains Susceptible to Trump Tariffs

GBP/USD Vulnerable amid Failure to Close Above 50-Day SMA

AUD/USD Recovery Stalls Ahead of January High

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025