CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

EUR/USD Struggles to Trade Back Above Former Support Zone

Article By: ,  Strategist
December 4, 2024 6:55 PM

US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD

The opening range for December is in focus for EUR/USD as it appears to be stuck in a narrow range, but the rebound from the November low (1.0333) may unravel as the exchange rate struggles to trade back above the former-support zone around the April low (1.0601).

EUR/USD Struggles to Trade Back Above Former Support Zone

EUR/USD holds above the weekly low (1.0461) after showing a limited reaction to the ADP Employment report, and the exchange rate may consolidate ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as Federal Reserve officials strike a mixed outlook for monetary policy.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler recognized that the central bank is ‘in the process of moving policy toward a more neutral setting’ while speaking at the Detroit Economic Club, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem made the case for ‘a patient approach that focuses on returning inflation sustainably to 2%’ while delivering a speech at the Bloomberg and the Global Interdependence Center Symposium.

US Economic Calendar

In light of the recent comments, it remains to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will respond to the 146K rise in ADP Employment as the US economy shows little signs of a looming recession, and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may lead to a dissent within the central bank as the update is anticipated to show a 200K rise in November.

With that said, a positive development may generate a bullish reaction in the Greenback as it curbs speculation for a Fed rate-cut in December, but a weaker-than-expected NFP print may prop up EUR/USD as it raises the scope for lower US interest rates.

EUR/USD Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

  • EUR/USD holds within the range from the start of the week and the exchange rate may continue to track sideways as it struggles to trade back above the former-support zone around the April low (1.0601).
  • Nevertheless, a break/close above the 1.0580 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region may push EUR/USD back towards 1.0660 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), with the next area of interest coming in around 1.0710 (50% Fibonacci extension).
  • At the same time, a break/close below the 1.0448 (2023 low) to 1.0480 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone brings 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with a breach below the November low (1.0333) opening up 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

Additional Market Outlooks

GBP/USD Recovery Vulnerable as Bear Flag Formation Takes Shape

USD/CHF Pullback Faces Positive Slope in 50-Day SMA

USD/CAD Defends Post-US Election Rally to Eye November High

US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Gives Back Post-US Election Rally

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025