Gold Pauses, EUR/USD Lifts as Trump Backs Off Tariffs (Again)

Trump delays 50% EU tariff threat to July 9
EUR/USD climbs above key resistance at 1.1380
Gold stalls after failing to clear $3367
USD stays soft despite firmer equity futures

Summary

Donald Trump’s reputation for dropping tariff news into low volume markets has been enhanced further, with the U.S. President choosing Memorial Day Eve to announce he will delay the introduction of 50% levies on imports from the European Union, allowing more time for a trade deal to be negotiated. The initial decision was only announced Friday.

While the U.S. dollar, Treasuries and stocks have benefitted from similar tariff backflips in the past, they’re now widely expected by traders, meaning the tailwinds they once delivered may not be as potent. U.S. stock futures gapped higher on the open in Asia, but for now, the dollar remains on the backfoot — hinting that Friday’s moves may not be fully reversed across every asset class.

Given the implications for Europe and safe havens, this report will look at the technical picture for EUR/USD and gold.

Trump Announces Tariff Reversal, Again

Donald Trump has agreed to delay his proposed 50% tariff on EU goods, pushing the implementation date back from June 1 to July 9. The move followed a call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requesting more time to negotiate a deal. Trump confirmed the extension in a Truth Social post, saying talks will now begin “rapidly.”

Von der Leyen described the call as “good,” telling media the EU needs until July 9 to strike a “good deal.” She added that Europe is ready to move swiftly and decisively. The initial tariff threat, announced on May 23, would apply to EU goods unless manufactured in the U.S.

EUR/USD Upside Favoured

Source: TradingView

The case for EUR/USD upside was looking solid even before Trump’s latest tariff backflip, with Friday’s engulfing candle joining momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD in flashing bullish signals.

With the price breaking above minor resistance at 1.1380, a bullish setup has emerged. If the level holds, longs could be established on the break, with a stop beneath for protection.

Offers may surface around 1.1420, where the pair topped out in late April. That's one potential target. For those seeking greater risk-reward, 1.1500 has proven to be a strong resistance zone over the years, making that another level to aim for.

Gold Rebound Stalls on Tariff Headlines

Source: TradingView

Gold has edged lower on the latest tariff headline, although whether that results in a meaningful reversal remains debatable given the uncertainty we’re dealing with.

Friday’s bullish engulfing candle hinted at further upside, but the rebound stalled at $3367 — a level that acted as both support and resistance in April. To get excited about more upside, gold needs to clear that hurdle, opening the door to $3434 or even record highs. If not, keep an eye on uptrend support around $3315, particularly with a possible rising wedge taking shape. A break lower could see a move towards $3280 and the 50-day moving average.

For now, momentum indicators are trending higher, keeping the bias tilted to the upside. With both the U.S. and U.K. off for holidays Monday, even minor news could generate outsized market reactions. Known event risk is also limited in the early part of the week.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty

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