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Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Remains Below Pre-US Election Prices

Article By: ,  Strategist
December 12, 2024 9:00 PM

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD

The price of gold pulls back from a fresh weekly high ($2726) to snap the recent series of higher highs and lows, and bullion may trade within the November range should it track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2671).

Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Remains Below Pre-US Election Prices

Gold continues to hold below pre-US election prices as it gives back the advance from the start of the week, and the precious metal may consolidate ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as it appears to be reversing ahead of the November high ($2762).

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US Economic Calendar

Looking ahead, the Fed’s last meeting for 2024 may sway the price of gold as the precious metal offers an alternative to fiat currencies, and the threat of a policy error may heighten the appeal of bullion as the central bank is expected to deliver another 25bp rate-cut even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the headline reading increasing to 2.7% in November from 2.6% per annum the month prior.

With that said, signs of a dissent within the FOMC may prop up the price of gold as the central bank continues to unwind its restrictive policy, but bullion may no longer reflect the bullish trend from earlier this year amid the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA ($2671).

XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

  • The price of gold snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows amid the failed attempt to break/close above $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension), with a move below the $2630 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $2660 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a test of the monthly low ($2614).
  • A break/close below $2590 (100% Fibonacci extension) brings $2550 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, but the price of gold may trade within a defined range should it defend the November low ($2537).
  • Need a close above $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) to bring the November high ($2762) on the radar, while a break/close above $2790 (50% Fibonacci extension) opens up $2850 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Climbs to Fresh Yearly High

GBP/USD Outlook Hinges on Break of December Opening Range

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Falls to Fresh Yearly Low

US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Rallies Ahead of US CPI Report

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong

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