Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bulls Fade Ahead of Tariff Negotiations

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices snap two-week losing streak- rallies nearly 3% ahead of key U.S. China tariff talks
• XAU/USD trading into resistance- risk for topside exhaustion / price inflection ahead
• Resistance 3333, 3500 (key), 3666– Support 3288, 3202, 3000/31(key)

Gold snapped a two-week losing streak with XAU/USD rebounding back towards the record high-close. While the broader outlook is still constructive, the bulls remain vulnerable here and the focus now shifts to critical China tariff negotiations and key U.S. inflation data next week. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: Gold is trading into a major Fibonacci level for a fourth consecutive week at the 2.618% extension of the 2011 decline near 3,333. Weekly momentum remains deep in overbought territory and while the broader outlook remains constructive the immediate advance may be vulnerable here as prices continue to straddle this key level.

Initial weekly support rests with the objective monthly open at 3288 and is backed by the May opening-range low at 3202. Note that the median-line of the 2024 pitchfork converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / weekly close below would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last month / a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support / broader bullish invalidation remains unchanged at 3000/31- a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance.

Initial resistance remains at 3333 and is backed by the record high / the upper parallel near 3500- a topside breach / close above this slope is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance with subsequent resistance objectives seen at the 300% extension at 3666.

Bottom line: Gold remains vulnerable to a test of uptrend support before resumption and the immediate focus is on possible price inflection off 3333. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 3202 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 3500 needed to mark uptrend resumption.

Keep in mind the market is on high alert with respect to the U.S. / China tariff talks in Switzerland this weekend with key U.S. inflation data (CPI) on tap next week. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
• Crude Oil (WTI)
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex