Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises ahead of Nvidia's earnings

US futures

Dow future 0.28% at 43743

S&P futures 0.53% at 5986

Nasdaq futures 0.79% at 21251

In Europe

FTSE 0.60% at 8711

Dax  0.57% at 22538

• Stocks recover after yesterday’s mixed closed
• Traders are jittery after recent weak data
• Nvidia reports after the close
• Oil falls further as Russia & Ukraine near a peace deal

Stocks recover after yesterday’s weak data

US stocks point to a higher open as investors await quarterly earnings from AI darling Nvidia.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower in the previous session, while the Dow Jones gained 0.4%. The mood remained cautious after U.S. consumer confidence data showed a deterioration in sentiment, suggesting that households were worrying over the potential impact of Trump's import tariffs on inflation.

The data followed Michigan confidence and services PMI figures last week that will also softer than expected raising concerns over the outlook for the economy.

The US economic calendar is relatively quiet today, with only new home sales to be released. Instead, all eyes will be on Nvidia's fourth-quarter results, which are considered a litmus test for enthusiasm towards the AI trade.

Corporate news

Nvidia is rising premarket ahead of its earnings release after the close. The semiconductor giant is expected to post Q4 revenue of 38.25 billion, including 34.06 billion in sales at its data centre business. This marks a 72% increase in revenue. was EPS expected to be 0.85 cents, up 63% from the same period last year. These figures mark a significant deceleration in growth. The market will be watching closely to see whether Nvidia's key customers are tightening their belts after years of huge capital spending. This would be particularly concerning amid DeepSeek’s disruption and the emergence of its low-cost AI model..

Super Micro Computer surged premarket after filing its delayed financial reports, keeping the group compliant with the NASDAQ index requirements.

Lowe's posted Q4 EPS that beats analysts' estimate as the home improvement chain said it benefited from its strategy to increase market share by selling to retail and professional customers.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq 100 fell from last week’s record high of 22,245, breaking below the 50 SMA and dropping to a nadir of 20,927. However, the price quickly recovered to close back above the 100 SMA at 21,100. The long lower wick on yesterday’s candle suggests there was little selling pressure at the lower levels and could mean sellers have run out of steam. Should the 100 SMA hold, buyers will look to rise above the 50 SMA at 21,500 ahead of 21,900. Should sellers break below the 100 SMA, and 21,000, a fall towards 20,760 could be on the cards.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

The USD is recovering slightly on Wednesday from an 11-week low as treasury yields tick higher. However, gains in the US dollar could be limited given ongoing concerns over the health of the US economy following a slew of weaker-than-expected data.

EUR/USD is falling after more disappointing data from Germany. German GfK consumer confidence dropped to -24.7 from -22.6 despite the recent elections. Weaker consumer confidence often translates into softer consumption. Yesterday's data from Germany showed the economy contracted 0.2% QoQ.

GBP/USD is falling amid a stronger U.S. dollar and a quiet UK economic calendar. Investors are awaiting further comments from Bank of England policy maker Swati Dhingra, who yesterday warned that there was no consensus on the pace of rate cuts going forward.

Oil edges lower as Russian Ukraine peace deal nears

Oil prices are edging lower after dropping 2.5% in the previous session, falling to a 2 month low as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine weighs on the price.

The prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine appears to be improving, which would take us closer to Russian sanctions being lifted. This would remove supply uncertainty hanging over the market, pulling the price lower.

Meanwhile, crude stocks fell by 640,000 barrels in the week ending February 21. EIA data is due later today, and if the draw is confirmed by the EIA, it would mark the first decline in crude oil inventories since mid-January.