Nasdaq Forecast: QQQ rises as Trump delays US involvement decision

US futures

Dow futures 0.99% at 42,300

S&P futures 1% at 5998

Nasdaq futures 1.25% at 21795

In Europe

FTSE 0.42% at 8825

DAX 1.46% at 23390

US stocks rise as the US weighs up its options
Trump said he will decide within 2 weeks
Oil falls but rises across the week amid heightened volatility

Trump delays decision by 2-weeks

U.S. stocks are pointing to a cautiously stronger start on Friday amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US involvement in the Iran-Israel war.

As the conflict in the Middle East is entering a second week, President Trump said he will decide in the coming two weeks over whether the US will get involved in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.

Trump has kept the world guessing over his plans. While his latest comments suggest the prospect of immediate US intervention in Iran appear to have eased, it has not disappeared and will remain in focus over the coming weeks.

Oil price volatility also adds to concerns as the US faces tariff-induced price pressures. The Federal Reserve quote and over-inflation are picking up over the summer as the impact of Trump's import tariffs kicks in. Traders are now pricing in just 47 basis points worth of cuts by the end of this year, with a 57% chance of the first cut coming in September.

Corporate news

Darden Restaurants is rising over 3% after the Olive Garden parent's Q4 earnings beat expectations. EPS was $2.98 a share, ahead of expectations by one cent, while revenue came in at $3.27 billion, beating expectations of $3.26 billion.

Shares of Circle continued to climb on Friday as investors cheered the Senate's approval of its stablecoin legislation. The stock is up 14% premarket trading after the bill passed the Senate on Tuesday.

Nasdaq 100 forecast – technical analysis.

The Nasdaq’s recovery from 16,325 ran into resistance at 22,000 before easing lower and consolidating below this level. The price once again found support at 21,500, a level which has offered both support and resistance over the past month. The holding of this support and the 50 SMA crossing above the 200 SMA in a golden cross bullish signal could spur on buyers, given the right catalysts. Buyers would look for a rise above 22,000 to extend gains towards 22,245 and fresh record highs. Should sellers break below 21,500, this opens the door to 21,000 and the 200 SMA at 20,600.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is modestly lower on Friday but is set to rise across the week as the USD benefited from safe haven flows and a more hawkish sounding Fed.

The EUR/USD is rising amid improving risk sentiment and after German PPI fell less than expected in May. PPI fell -0.2% MoM, up from -0.6% in April and ahead of the -0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, PPI fell by 1.2%, largely owing to a fall in energy prices. Meanwhile, prices of consumer and durable goods rose.

GBP/USD is rising amid an improved market mood and despite UK retail sales plunging in May. Retail sales fell by 2.7% MoM after increasing 1.3% in the previous month. Economists had expected a -1.2% fall. This marked the largest monthly decline since 2023 after consumers splurged in April. The data adds to evidence that the surge in economic activity in Q1 is over.

Oil rises as the Middle East conflict continues, IEA oil report

Oil is edging lower after President Trump delays the decision on entering direct conflict with Iran. However, the prices remained on calls for a third straight weekly rise.

Oil prices jumped over 3% this week after Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, whilst Iran exchanged missiles and drones with Israel.

The US is weighing whether to become directly involved in the conflict, with Trump setting the timeline for the next two weeks. The risk premium on oil has risen on concerns that a border conflict could affect supply, and an escalation in the conflict could see the premium rise further.

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