CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

NZD/USD Struggles to Test November High Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision

Article By: ,  Strategist
Tuesday 9:25 PM

New Zealand Dollar Outlook: NZD/USD

NZD/USD may consolidate over the remainder of the month as it struggles to test the November high (0.6038), but the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting may drag on the exchange rate as the central bank is anticipated to deliver a 25bp rate cut.

NZD/USD Struggles to Test November High Ahead of RBNZ Rate Decision

NZD/USD gives back the advance from the start of the week as it falls from a fresh yearly high (0.6032), and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the rebound from the monthly low (0.5847) as it snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

New Zealand Economic Calendar

At the same time, developments coming out of the RBNZ meeting may sway NZD/USD as the central bank is expected to cut the official cash rate (OCR) to 3.25% from 3.50%, and more of the same from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may produce headwinds for the New Zealand Dollar should Governor Christian Hawkesby and Co. reiterate that ‘the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’

With that said, NZD/USD may depreciate over the remainder of the month if the RBNZ maintains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, but a hawkish rate cut may generate a bullish reaction in the New Zealand Dollar as the central bank appears to be at or nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle.

NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; NZD/USD on TradingView

  • NZD/USD pulls back ahead of the November high (0.6038) to register a fresh weekly low (0.5940), and lack of momentum to hold above the 0.5910 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push the exchange rate toward the monthly low (0.5847).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.5740 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.5760 (100% Fibonacci extension), but NZD/USD may stage further attempts to test the November high (0.6038) should it defend the rebound from the monthly low (0.5847).
  • Need a break/close above 0.6070 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to bring 0.6170 (50% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6220 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 0.06260 (38.2% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

Gold Price Falls as Trump Delays EU Tariff

USD/JPY Approaches Monthly Low as Trump Plans 50% Tariff for Europe

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Struggles Following RBA Rate Cut

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Bounces Back Ahead of Monthly Low

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on X at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025