US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Clears May Low

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF clears the May low (0.8186) after failing to push above the 50-Day SMA (0.8368), with the exchange rate carving a series of lower highs and lows as it extends the decline from last week.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Clears May Low

The bearish price action in USD/CHF may persist as it appears to be tracking the negative slope in the moving average, and the ongoing shift in US fiscal policy may continue to produce headwinds for the Greenback as it clouds the outlook for growth and inflation.

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With that said, USD/CHF may continue to hold below the 50-Day SMA (0.8368) even though the Trump administration tries to avoid a trade war, but the recent selloff in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary should it defend the rebound from the April low (0.8040).

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

• USD/CHF carves a series of lower highs and lows following the failed attempt to push above 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension), with a move below 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) raising the scope for a test of the April low (0.8040).
• Next area of interest comes in around 0.7810 (161.8% Fibonacci extension), and a move below 30 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in the exchange rate like the price action from earlier this year.
• At the same time, failure to push/close below 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) may keep USD/CHF within the April range, with a move above 0.8360 (100% Fibonacci extension) bringing the May high (0.8476) on the radar.

Additional Market Outlooks

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Selloff Persists Ahead of BoC Meeting

EUR/USD Defends Rebound from Weekly Low to Hold Above 50-Day SMA

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Halts Bearish Price Series

GBP/USD Holds Below February 2022 High for Now

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

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