USD, EUR, GBP, JPY Outlook: Weekly COT Report Highlights

View related analysis:

COT data shows mixed signals across major asset classes. USD net shorts edged higher, while gold and silver longs rose. Wall Street futures show divergence, but traders await clearer cues from trade headlines and key market levels.

Weekly Market Positioning Overview – COT Report Highlights (27 May 2025)

US Dollar (USD): Futures traders effectively increased net-short exposure to the USD by 1.3k contracts
European dollar (EUR): Large speculators and asset managers increased their net-long exposure by a combined 8.7k contracts
British pound (GBP): Large specs increased net-long exposure by 11.4k contract, asset managers trimmed net-short exposure by -1.4k contracts
Japanese yen (JPY): Large speculators reduced net-short exposure by -3.4k contracts
Australian dollar (AUD): Net-short exposure increased by 2k contracts among large specs, though asset managers trimmed their by -1.6k contracts
Canadian dollar (CAD): Asset managers trimmed net-short exposure by 13.8k contracts
Swiss franc (CHF): Net-short exposure increased by 1.8k contracts, to a 5-week high
Gold (GC): Large specs and managed funds increased net-long exposure by a combined 13.4k contracts
Silver (SI): They also increased net-long exposure by a combined 5.7k contracts
Crude Oil (WTI): Large specs and managed funds decreased net-long exposure by a combined 28.7k contracts

US Dollar Positioning (IMM Data): Weekly COT Report Analysis

Is the US dollar oversold? It depends on where we measure it from. Net-short exposure to overall USD exposure is moving around its lower 1-standard deviation band, which could be considered from post-2021 standards. But we have seen higher levels of net-short exposure to the USD in 2020.

The USD index is meandering around the 100 handle and the 2023 lows. This seems to be a pivotal level, and the difference between a surprise short-covering rally or a complete breakdown of the greenback. And which way it goes is completely in the hands of Trump and his policies.

Commodity FX Positioning (AUD, CAD, NZD): Weekly COT Report Overview

Another case of mixed signals. Large speculators reduced net-shott exposure to AUD, CAD and NZD futures yet asset managers increased net-shot exposure. Effectively cancelling each other out. Their direction is to be mapped out by Trumps and his trade war.

Metals (Gold, Silver, Copper) Futures - COT report

I’m coming around to the potential that gold is not ready to deliver a deeper retracement. Net-short exposure has been falling since Q3, yet prices have not. Net-long exposure is now curling up, which suggests bulls have come around to the same conclusion. Gold may now be priming itself for an almighty bullish breakout.

Wall Street Indices Positioning (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100): Weekly COT Report

Mixed signals from Wall Street positioning, with net-long exposure falling on S&P 500 futures and rising on Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures. Ultimately, there are no compelling signs from market exposure, so one may be better off focusing on price action. We’ve seen a multi-week rally, though volatility has diminished and prices have effectively moved sideways over the past two weeks. That means volatility awaits, but the breakout direction is likely down to which way trade talks go: strong tariffs are likely bearish for indices, weak tariffs likely bullish.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.