CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Create Account
✖

USD/JPY Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Above Oversold Zone

Article By: ,  Strategist
February 24, 2025 6:40 PM

US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY

USD/JPY halts a three-day selloff to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30, and the oscillator may show the bearish momentum abating as it appears to be reversing ahead of oversold territory.

USD/JPY Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Above Oversold Zone

In turn, USD/JPY may defend the December low (148.65) as it rebounds from a fresh monthly low (148.85), and the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from earlier this month as the Federal Reserve insists that ‘we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.’

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here

 

However, the rebound in USD/JPY may turn out to be temporary as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from last week, and developments coming out of the US may sway the exchange rate as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated to show slowing inflation.

US Economic Calendar

The core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, is seen narrowing to 2.6% in January from 2.8% per annum the month prior, and USD/JPY may struggle to hold its ground ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March as speculation for lower US interest rates is likely to influence the carry trade.

At the same time, a higher-than-expected PCE print may push the Fed to further combat inflation as the US economy shows little signs of a recession, and USD/JPY may attempt to retrace the decline from earlier this month should the RSI continue to hold above oversold territory.

With that said, USD/JPY may snap the recent series of lower highs and lows should it extend the rebound from the monthly low (148.85), but failure to defend the December low (148.65) may push the exchange rate towards the October low (142.97).

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

  • USD/JPY extends the recent series of lower highs and lows to register a fresh monthly low (148.85), with a close below the 148.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 150.30 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) zone raising the scope for a move towards the 144.60 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to 145.90 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
  • Next area of interest comes in around the October low (142.97), but USD/JPY may track the flattening slope in the 50-Day SMA (154.97) if it continues to hold above the December low (148.65).
  • Need a move back above 151.95 (2022 high) to bring 153.80 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly high (155.89).

Additional Market Outlooks

US Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Approaches Channel Resistance

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Coils Ahead of Trump Tariffs

Gold Price Rallies to Fresh Record High to Push RSI Back Above 70

AUD/USD Clears January High to Trade in Ascending Channel

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

© FOREX.COM 2025