XAG/USD: Rising Wedge Threatens to Snap as U.S. Dollar Finds Its Feet

XAG/USD Summary

Silver’s bullish run may be coming to an end. Sitting in a rising wedge and with momentum indicators rolling over, the ducks look to be lining up for a potential downside break. Throw in signs the U.S. dollar may have bottomed—an adversary to commodity prices—and the unwind could be sizeable, especially if risk appetite were to evaporate.

Reversal Risk for Silver Grows

Source: TradingView

If silver were to break beneath wedge support and hold there, it would allow for shorts to be established with a tight stop above the level for protection. $35.50—where the price bounced strongly from on June 12—screens as an initial target. If broken, it would bring uptrend support established in early April, along with the October 2024 highs at $34.87, into play.

Bullish momentum that helped power silver higher is also showing signs of waning—we’ve seen bearish divergence between RSI (14) and price, while MACD is also rolling over towards the signal line. The momentum picture isn’t outright bearish but just looks heavy.

U.S. Dollar May Have Bottomed

Another important factor to consider beyond technicals is that silver and other commodity prices often struggle in an environment where the U.S. dollar is strengthening. That point is reinforced by the inverse correlation between silver and DXY over the past month, sitting with a score of -0.66—not strong by any stretch, but not something you can ignore either.

Source: TradingView

Looking at DXY on the daily chart, after repeatedly failing to break horizontal support at 97.74 either side of the weekend, the buck has bounced over the past few days, pushing above long-running downtrend resistance dating back to the February highs. With RSI (14) trending higher towards neutral and MACD crossing the signal line from above, the shifting momentum picture suggests the trend break may stick.

99.40 is a level to keep on the radar near term given it offered support and resistance over recent months. Beyond, the 50-day moving average, 100.25, 101.25, and 102 are levels to watch given how the DXY interacted with them earlier in the year.

Should the bullish break fail, 98.50 and 97.74 are the downside levels of note.

-- Written by David Scutt

Follow David on Twitter @scutty

StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67.6% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

FOREX.com is a trading name of StoneX Europe Limited, and FOREX.com/ie is a domain operated by StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc. StoneX Europe Ltd, is a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) company registered to the Department of Registrar of Companies and Official Receiver with a Registration Number HE409708, and authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 400/21. StoneX Europe is a Member of the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) and has its registered address at Nikokreontos 2, 5th Floor, 1066 Nicosia, Cyprus.

FOREX.com is a trademark of StoneX Europe Ltd, a member of StoneX Group Inc.

This website uses cookies to provide you with the very best experience and to know you better. By visiting our website with your browser set to allow cookies, you consent to our use of cookies as described in our Privacy Policy.

Through passporting, StoneX Europe is allowed to provide its services and products on a cross-border basis to the following European Economic Area ("EEA") states: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.

StoneX Europe Ltd products, services and information are not intended for residents other than the ones stated above.

StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation. StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.