The ASX 200 surged to record highs last week, rallying more than 22% from its April low as soft Australian employment data helped revive RBA rate cut expectations. While prices have pulled back slightly, the broader trend remains bullish—and bulls may be eyeing the 9,000 milestone if sentiment permits. Here’s a technical breakdown of the ASX SPI 200 Index Futures.
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ASX 200 Rally Pauses After Breakout, but Bulls Still Eye 9,000
The ASX 200 has rallied more than 22% from its April low to last week’s high, with bullish momentum reinforced by Australia’s higher unemployment rate of 4.3%—a level soft enough to justify potential RBA rate cuts without triggering full-blown recession fears. That narrative helped drive a strong bullish range expansion candle through the tight consolidation zone near the February high.
While the index has since pulled back from record highs, the underlying strength of the uptrend suggests many bulls are likely treating the dip as a buying opportunity. And should sentiment permit, the ASX 200 could be eyeing a move to 9,000 sooner rather than later.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures
ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart
A bearish inside day formed on Monday as prices pulled back towards the February high. While a multi-week bearish divergence has developed on the daily RSI (14), the breakout to new highs suggests it may be a false signal.
If the ASX 200 retraces further, bulls may look to buy dips towards the high-volume node (HVN) at 8,536 and maintain a bullish bias while prices remain above 8,500. A break above last week’s high would confirm bullish continuation, potentially setting up a run towards the 9,000 mark.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures
Key Economic Events for Traders (AEST / GMT+10)
08:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM, YoY), Exports & Imports (Jun) (NZD/USD, NZD/JPY)
11:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD/USD, ASX 200)
15:00 EUR Finnish Unemployment Rate (Jun) (EUR/USD, DAX)
16:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, Net Cash Requirement (Jun) (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
18:00 EUR Greek Current Account (YoY), ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR/USD, DAX)
19:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
22:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil)
22:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (USD, S&P 500)00:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index, Shipments, Services (Jul) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX)
