ASX 200 Eyes 9,000 as Bulls Defend Dips Ahead, RBA Mins In Focus

The ASX 200 surged to record highs last week, rallying more than 22% from its April low as soft Australian employment data helped revive RBA rate cut expectations. While prices have pulled back slightly, the broader trend remains bullish—and bulls may be eyeing the 9,000 milestone if sentiment permits. Here’s a technical breakdown of the ASX SPI 200 Index Futures.

View related analysis:

ASX 200 Rally Pauses After Breakout, but Bulls Still Eye 9,000

The ASX 200 has rallied more than 22% from its April low to last week’s high, with bullish momentum reinforced by Australia’s higher unemployment rate of 4.3%—a level soft enough to justify potential RBA rate cuts without triggering full-blown recession fears. That narrative helped drive a strong bullish range expansion candle through the tight consolidation zone near the February high.

While the index has since pulled back from record highs, the underlying strength of the uptrend suggests many bulls are likely treating the dip as a buying opportunity. And should sentiment permit, the ASX 200 could be eyeing a move to 9,000 sooner rather than later.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

A bearish inside day formed on Monday as prices pulled back towards the February high. While a multi-week bearish divergence has developed on the daily RSI (14), the breakout to new highs suggests it may be a false signal.

If the ASX 200 retraces further, bulls may look to buy dips towards the high-volume node (HVN) at 8,536 and maintain a bullish bias while prices remain above 8,500. A break above last week’s high would confirm bullish continuation, potentially setting up a run towards the 9,000 mark.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEST / GMT+10)

08:45 NZD Trade Balance (MoM, YoY), Exports & Imports (Jun) (NZD/USD, NZD/JPY)
11:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD/USD, ASX 200)
15:00 EUR Finnish Unemployment Rate (Jun) (EUR/USD, DAX)
16:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, Net Cash Requirement (Jun) (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
18:00 EUR Greek Current Account (YoY), ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR/USD, DAX)
19:15 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (GBP/USD, FTSE 100)
22:30 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks (USD, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Gold, Crude Oil)
22:55 USD Redbook (YoY) (USD, S&P 500)00:00 USD Richmond Manufacturing Index, Shipments, Services (Jul) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 USD FOMC Member Bowman Speaks, M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun) (USD, S&P 500)
03:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, DAX)

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.