ASX 200 Morning Outlook: October Brings Bullish Bias and High Volatility

The ASX 200 begins October on a constructive note, with seasonal trends pointing to a bullish bias and elevated volatility. Historically, October delivers one of the strongest median returns of the year while also being the most volatile month on record. Technical signals and sector rotation suggest a potential cycle low has been set, giving traders reasons to watch for further upside.

View related analysis:

ASX 200 October Outlook: Bullish and Volatile

ASX 200 Market Snapshot

The ASX 200 edged lower on Wednesday, but a bullish hammer above the 50-day EMA and a close back above the 20-day EMA point to potential near-term support.
8 of 11 sectors advanced, led by Industrials and Telecoms, while declines were concentrated in Consumer Discretionary and Materials.
Industrials gained 1%, marking their strongest single-day performance in a month, adding weight to the case that an important cycle low was set last week.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Seasonality Analysis

ASX 200 Seasonality for October

Over the past 33 years, October has averaged the most volatile monthly range at 7.2%, making it a key month for traders.
The average return of 0.65% comes with a 60.6% win rate, showing a consistent bullish bias.
October’s median return of 2% ranks as the second-strongest month of the year, just behind April’s 2.4%.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - Source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Daily Seasonality in October

For much of October, ASX 200 daily returns appear sporadic, with no consistent pattern early in the month.
A clearer trend emerges into month-end, with a bearish phase from 26–29 October, where average returns are negative and win rates drop below 50% on three of those days.
The final two sessions of the month typically flip bullish, with positive average returns and win rates above 50%.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - Source: ASX, LSEG

ASX 200 Technical Analysis

The ASX 200 is edging towards a bullish breakout, with a brief two-day pullback holding firm above the 50-day EMA. Prices are now testing the September highs, and a breakout above this level would place the monthly R1 pivot just below the 9,000 handle into focus — bringing the index within striking distance of fresh record highs.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.