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ASX 200 Outlook: Futures Signal Bearish Correction After 9000 Rejection

By :   Matt Simpson , Market Analyst
August 28, 2025 10:43 PM

The ASX 200 futures briefly touched the 9000 milestone last week before reversing sharply, raising the prospect of a corrective wave lower. A shooting star candle on the daily chart marked a near-term top, and while the longer-term trend remains bullish, technical signals suggest the correction may not be finished. Bears are eyeing key Fibonacci levels and moving averages as potential downside targets, while the hourly chart shows intraday weakness around the weekly pivot.

 

ASX 200 Futures: Technical Signals Point to Extended Correction

 

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis – Daily Chart

Australia’s share market briefly touched my 9000 target last Monday before retreating. The shooting star reversal candle marked a classic near-term top and triggered a minor pullback. The daily chart trend remains strongly bullish overall, but I’m not convinced the correction has run its course. It’s not uncommon to see at least three minor corrective waves, even within a strong trend like the ASX 200.

Although we’ve seen a two-day bounce from the 10-day EMA, the bearish engulfing candle that formed overnight on ASX 200 futures is notable. It stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, suggesting a potential lower high and the completion of wave ‘B’ in a simple ABC correction. If risk appetite weakens, a move down to the 8778 high-volume node (HVN) looks possible.

  • The near-term bias remains bearish beneath the overnight high.
  • A 38.2% Fibonacci level at 8833 could provide support for wave C.
  • A break beneath the 10-day EMA (8911) would put the 20-day EMA (8857) and 8833 low firmly in focus.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

 

ASX 200 Futures (SPI 200) Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Chart

The hourly chart shows prices holding at the weekly pivot point, which could spark a minor bounce after the open. That said, the false break above 8949 and subsequent reversal near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement suggests the ASX 200 may have topped in the near term. Any rebounds are therefore likely to favour bears seeking opportunities to fade strength.

A weekly volume point of control (VPOC) sits at 8876, providing a potential downside target if ASX futures break below 8900 today.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures

 

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEST / GMT+10)

09:30 JPY CPI, Jobs/Applications Ratio, Tokyo Core CPI, Tokyo CPI, CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy, Unemployment Rate (Jul/Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
09:50 JPY Industrial Production, Industrial Production Forecast 1m Ahead, Industrial Production Forecast 2m Ahead, Large Retailers' Sales, Large Scale Retail Sales, Retail Sales (Jul–Sep) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
11:30 AUD Housing Credit, Private Sector Credit (Jul) (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
13:00 NZD M3 Money Supply (Jul) (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)
15:00 JPY Construction Orders, Household Confidence, Housing Starts (Jul/Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
16:00 EUR German Import Price Index, German Retail Sales (Jul) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
17:55 EUR German Unemployment Change, German Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment, German Unemployment (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
18:00 EUR Regional CPIs – Baden Wuerttemberg, Bavaria, Brandenburg, Hesse, North Rhine Westphalia, Saxony (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
19:00 EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
22:00 EUR German CPI, German HICP (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, DAX)
22:30 USD Core PCE Price Index, Goods Trade Balance, PCE Price Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Real Personal Consumption, Retail Inventories Ex Auto, Wholesale Inventories (Jul) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY, Gold, Crude Oil)
22:30 GDP Annualised (Q2) (USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY)
23:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jul) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
23:45 USD Chicago PMI (Aug) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

Saturday, August 30, 2025

00:00 USD Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Consumer Sentiment (Aug) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
01:00 CAD Budget Balance (Jun) (USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY)
01:30 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)

 

View the full economic calendar

 

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

 

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