AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY and ASX 200 Technical Setups: Key Levels in Focus

Cross-asset price action is approaching key technical levels, offering important clues for the near-term outlook. AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are both testing high-volume support zones with early signs of fading downside momentum. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has bounced from a key support level and formed a bullish three-bar reversal, putting a breakout toward the 9,000 level back in sight. Here’s a breakdown of each setup heading into the new week.

View related analysis:

Technical Overview: JPY Crosses Test Support, ASX 200 Builds Toward Breakout

AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen

On Friday morning, I was eyeing a potential bullish breakout on AUD/JPY, with price holding above the March high and a bullish engulfing candle forming within an uptrend. However, the Japanese Yen surged during a risk-off post-NFP session, sending AUD/JPY sharply lower in its worst session since April and printing a strong bearish engulfing candle.

It’s too early to confirm that the bearish move has run its course, but there are initial signs that downside momentum is slowing. Monday’s range was less than half of Friday’s, and price is now approaching the high-volume node (HVN) support zone around 94.50. For now, I’m watching for signs of a swing low on the daily chart before reconsidering long opportunities in AUD/JPY.

Shorter-term, bears may look to fade minor rallies on the 1-hour chart. Notably, both the weekly and monthly S1 pivot points sit just above the HVN, and a bullish divergence is forming on the 1-hour RSI (14), suggesting a swing low in the Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen may be close.

A break beneath 94.50 invalidates the these and marks the next leg lower.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView AUD/JPY

CAD/JPY Technical Analysis: Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen

Price action on the CAD/JPY daily chart is similar to that of AUD/JPY, though it now sits at a key technical juncture, pressing against the rising April trendline. With the 200-day SMA just beneath current levels, a minor break below the trendline seems plausible. However, a bounce may also occur around the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs near 106.43.

Much like AUD/JPY, there's potential for CAD/JPY to drift lower toward its high-volume node (HVN) from the prior correction, which lies in the 105.80–106.00 region. A clean break beneath this zone could expose the 104.80 support level near the 105 handle.

For now, the focus is on whether bulls can defend the April trendline and regain upward momentum in the Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView CAD/JPY

ASX 200 Technical Analysis: SPI 200 Futures Eye 9,000 Breakout

The ASX 200 futures market bounced in tandem with Wall Street overnight, placing the Australian share market firmly back on breakout watch. I’ve outlined my bias for the ASX 200 to target 9,000 in recent articles, and highlighted the importance of the high-volume node (HVN) at 8,536 as a key support level.

Last week’s bullish pin bar perfectly respected that HVN, and we’ve since seen a textbook three-bar reversal (morning star pattern) form within the prevailing uptrend. This adds weight to the idea that a breakout may be imminent.

Bulls may look to buy dips towards last week’s low or the December high, anticipating an eventual move towards the 9,000 level in ASX 200 futures.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - Source: TradingView, ASX SPI 200 Index Futures, S&P/ASX 200 Index

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

Delayed London Stock Exchange (LSE) Data

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) market data displayed or referenced on this website is provided on a delayed basis and is not in real time. The delay period may vary but is typically at least 15 minutes. This data is intended for information purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading, investment, or other financial decisions. We do not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the data for any particular purpose. Users should consult real-time data sources and obtain professional advice before making any financial decisions.