AUD/USD, GBP/USD Outlook: AU Jobs, UK Data Dump, US Inflation In Focus

Appetite for risk remained firm on Wednesday as the US House prepared to vote on ending the longest government shutdown in American history. Now in its 43rd day, a successful vote would allow government agencies to begin releasing a large backlog of economic data in the coming weeks — information that’s vital for both Fed policymakers and traders trying to gauge the central bank’s next move.

View related analysis:

Raphael Bostic became the latest Fed official to announce his retirement when his term ends, following Adriana Kugler’s August departure, which cleared the path for pro-Trump economist Stephen Miran — a vocal advocate for much lower rates and greater presidential influence over Fed decisions. While it is too early to say who could replace Bostic, I very much doubt they’ll be a Democrat.

The Swiss franc was the strongest major currency for a second session following Trump’s comments about a trade deal with Switzerland. The Australian dollar held steady during a mild risk-on session ahead of today’s employment data and could extend its gains if the report shows solid job growth without a rise in unemployment. Traders will also be watching a key batch of UK data and US inflation figures to gauge expectations for the BOE and Fed.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - source: LSEG

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: British Pound vs US Dollar

The British pound has fallen 5.2% against the US dollar over the past seven weeks from its September high, with little sign of a meaningful retracement. A bullish pinbar formed last week and perfectly respected the 100-week SMA, with subsequent price action remaining within the upper half of that candle — suggesting demand is building.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD formed a bullish hammer on Wednesday, with its tail marking a false intraday break below 1.31. This could signal the completion of a wave B within a simple ABC correction, shifting bias toward a retracement higher toward the 200-day moving averages near 1.3265 — which also aligns with the 100% projection level.

hart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView GBP/USD

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar

The Australian dollar closed at a seven-day high after establishing support around its 100-day EMA and September close. My bias remains for AUD/USD to rise towards 0.6600, though the 0.6562 swing high and October VPOC at 0.6593 also serve as viable interim targets for bulls.

The one-hour chart shows a choppy yet constructive uptrend emerging from recent consolidation. The bias stays bullish above Tuesday’s low at 0.6515, while the nearby high-volume node (HVN) could offer support should prices pull back before the next leg higher towards 0.66.

Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - source: TradingView AUD/USD

Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)

Australia’s employment report is the main event for AUD/USD traders. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has quashed all hopes of a rate cut this year and now expects just one cut in 2026, citing persistent inflation despite rising unemployment. However, policymakers may be forced to reconsider if unemployment climbs another 0.2 percentage points — as it did in August.

Bank of England (BoE) watchers will be closely monitoring today’s UK data dump, which includes Q3 GDP, industrial production, manufacturing output, construction, and trade data. The BoE kept rates steady at 4% at its last meeting, with a narrow 5–4 vote in favour of no change. Unless the data signals an imminent need for easing, it could bolster the British pound and support a further move higher in GBP/USD over the near term.

Attention now turns to US events, including a speech by FOMC member Bostic, as well as CPI and jobless claims data. Any hint of dovishness or softness in the labour or inflation figures could see traders price in more Fed rate cuts, providing further support for GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

Thursday, November 13, 2025

08:45 NZD Electronic Card Retail Sales, Migration & Visitor Data (Oct–Sep) (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)
10:50 JPY Foreign Bonds & Stock Investment, PPI (Oct) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
11:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
11:30 AUD Employment Data (Oct) (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, ASX 200)
14:35 JPY 5-Year JGB Auction (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
17:30 EUR French Unemployment Rate (Q3) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, CAC 40)
18:00 GBP GDP, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Trade Balance (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
18:30 CHF PPI (Oct) (USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, SMI)
19:30 CNY Money Supply, New Loans & Total Social Financing (Oct) (USD/CNH, AUD/USD, Hang Seng Index)
20:00 USD IEA Monthly Report (WTI Crude, Brent Crude, USD/CAD)
20:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
20:30 GBP Labour Productivity (Q2) (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
21:00 EUR ECOFIN Meetings, Industrial Production (Sep) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
22:00 GBP Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Nov) (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
22:00 EUR IPSOS PCSI Surveys (Germany, France, Nov) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
23:00 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)

Friday, November 14, 2025

00:00 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
00:00 EUR German Current Account Balance (Sep), ECB’s Elderson Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
00:30 USD CPI & Jobless Claims Data (Oct), Productivity & Labor Costs (Q3) (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Crude Oil, EUR/USD)

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