The US dollar was the strongest FX major on Tuesday as the government shutdown dragged on. While the lack of incoming data has helped the greenback find support, there will surely come a point where prolonged inaction could turn USD-bearish if it continues. Regardless, the US Dollar Index (DXY) posted its highest close in two months and its best single-day gain in eight.
USD/JPY extended its advance to a seven-month high, with the Japanese yen remaining the weakest major amid expectations of a stimulus-driven policy agenda from Japan’s incoming prime minister. EUR/USD fell for a second day and is hovering near key support at 1.1645, while a bearish outside day formed on AUD/USD around the 0.66 handle. Meanwhile, NZD/USD printed a prominent swing high ahead of today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision.
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Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - data source: LSEG
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, AUD/NZD IN Focus Ahead of RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The RBNZ is widely expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, though a 50bp cut cannot be ruled out given weak business sentiment. At the very least, a dovish 25bp cut could pave the way for further New Zealand dollar losses. While my near-term bias remains bearish on NZD/USD and AUD/NZD, the latter may still find upside room in the short term if the Aussie outperforms the Kiwi following the decision.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) has reversed lower after multiple rejections near the 0.6625–0.6630 resistance zone, where the July high has regained technical significance. Tuesday’s bearish outside day reinforced downside momentum as the Aussie dollar slipped back below the 20-day SMA, signalling renewed weakness against the US dollar.
Price action now favours sellers while trading beneath 0.6630, with bears likely eyeing the 50-day SMA (0.6544) and the 0.6520 support zone as near-term downside targets. A clean break below those levels could expose the 0.6500 handle, while rallies toward 0.66 may attract fresh selling pressure.
The broader bias remains bearish as momentum realigns with the decline from the September high, keeping the Aussie on the defensive into mid-October.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView AUD/USD
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar
The New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has turned lower after forming a swing high near 0.5847, a zone that aligns with the 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA, reinforcing its role as a key resistance cluster. Monday’s failure to hold above this level triggered renewed bearish momentum, with the Kiwi falling nearly 0.8%, marking its weakest session in over a week.
Momentum has now realigned with the dominant daily downtrend, keeping sellers in control heading into today’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Bears may look to fade minor rallies within Tuesday’s range, targeting the 0.5755 support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and the 0.5700 handle as potential downside objectives.
The near-term bias remains bearish while NZD/USD trades beneath 0.5850, with rallies likely to meet resistance around the May low and September VPOC.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView NZD/USD
AUD/NZD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar
While both the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) remain under pressure against the US dollar, momentum appears more favourable for the Aussie in the cross, keeping AUD/NZD supported in the near term.
The pair found demand at the monthly pivot point (1.1297) on Monday, forming a doji candle before edging higher on Tuesday. The 10-day and 20-day EMAs continue to underpin the uptrend, highlighting strong trend support. A push toward 1.1400–1.1418 looks achievable if buyers maintain control.
However, the weekly shooting star near the 2022 high warns that the recent rally could be the first leg of an ABC corrective pattern, suggesting potential volatility or a dip back toward the pivot to reset risk-reward for AUD/NZD bulls.
Chart analysis by Matt Simpson - data source: TradingView AUD/NZD
Key Economic Events for Traders (AEDT / GMT+11)
All Day CNY China Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday (USD/CNH, AUD/CNH, CN50 Index)
10:30 JPY Wage Income of Employees, Overtime Pay (Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
10:50 JPY Adjusted Current Account, Bank Lending, Current Account n.s.a (Aug) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
11:30 AUD Building Approvals, Private House Approvals, NAB Business Confidence (Aug/Sep) (AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD)
12:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, RBNZ Rate Statement (NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY)
16:00 JPY Economy Watchers Current Index (Sep) (USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225)
17:00 EUR German Industrial Production (Aug) (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
20:15 EUR German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
21:00 EUR German Buba Monthly Report (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
00:00 EUR ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
00:30 USD Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
01:00 USD Construction Spending (Aug), Fed Goolsbee Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
01:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Refinery Crude Runs, Crude Oil Imports, (WTI Crude, Brent Crude, USD/CAD)
02:00 GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks (GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, FTSE 100)
03:00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, DAX)
04:00 USD 10-Year Note Auction (UST yields, USD/JPY, Nasdaq 100)
04:15 USD Fed Logan Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
06:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
06:15 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY)
